Oil Off the Table, Rates Still Centre Stage

The Trading Room of 16 June starts from a clear point: the market has removed part of the most immediate risk from the table, but has not yet resolved the underlying problem. Oil has cooled; rates remain the true arbiter.

The webinar with Daniele Lavecchia and Fabrizio Ravetto followed a very clear line: first the macro and intermarket framework, then the reading of institutional flows, followed by breadth, WPI, seasonality and setups selected by Domina Trading Suite's Market Intelligence.

Oil falls, geopolitical risk eases

The heaviest variable of the previous week was oil. The market arrived from days dominated by Middle Eastern risk, with the Strait of Hormuz theme, the potential impact on energy routes and the risk of contagion spreading to inflation and growth.

The webinar highlighted the main development: the announcement of a preliminary agreement produced an immediate reaction in crude, with a sharp downside gap at the open and a reduction in pressure on the energy sector.

This does not mean the problem is definitively closed. An announced deal must be signed, implemented and upheld. Sensitive points remain: the full normalisation of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb risk, stabilisation of the Lebanese area and the political durability of the agreement.

The market reading is therefore straightforward: oil has ceased to be the immediate risk detonator, but remains a variable to monitor. The difference is substantial.

The rates issue is not resolved

With oil removed as the most pressing risk, the focus immediately shifts back to interest rates.

The ECB has already moved by 25 basis points, confirming a stance still mindful of inflation control. In the United States, meanwhile, the key event is the June 16–17 FOMC meeting: the market is not pricing in any major moves on the Fed Funds rate, but is paying close attention to the tone set by the new Warsh presidency.

This juncture matters because the question is not simply "cut or no cut". The real question is whether the Fed will confirm an accommodative stance or begin to put the risk of persistent inflation back at centre stage.

An equity market in rally mode can withstand a Fed on hold. It handles far less well a Fed that returns to signalling tightening, or even merely a reduced willingness to accommodate easing expectations.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq: clear strength, but to be read methodically

The technical reading on US indices remains constructive. The S&P 500 posted a significant reaction, with an upside gap and fresh momentum on the weekly chart. The Nasdaq, while appearing slightly less buoyant than the S&P 500, maintains a positive structure and notable signs of institutional accumulation.

The central point is not to chase price. The point is to understand where institutional demand showed up ahead of the move.

During the session, exceptionally large block transactions on SPY and QQQ were highlighted, read through dark pools and lit pools. In particular, some of the largest transactions seen in recent years were concentrated precisely during the phases of decline and subsequent base-building.

The operational conclusion is clear: it is not about "knowing in advance" what the market will do, but about observing where professional money has left statistically significant footprints.

Dark pools, lit pools and insiders: what to really watch

One of the most valuable parts of the webinar was the explanation of the difference between visible markets and less immediately observable flows.

• Lit pool: transactions routed through regulated, visible markets.
• Dark pool: institutional transactions executed off the visible order book — legitimate, but not immediately transparent during the negotiation phase.
• Insiders: trades reported by individuals internal to the company, such as board members or other material insiders.

The dark pool is not a "shady" market. It is a tool used by institutional operators to execute large blocks without immediately causing price distortions.

For analytical purposes, what matters is localisation: if large blocks cluster around technically significant areas, the subsequent price action warrants closer attention.

Improving breadth: is the rally broadening?

Market breadth was one of the most compelling aspects of the session.

The number of stocks trading above their 200-period and 50-period moving averages is progressively improving. This indicates that internal participation within the US market is no longer confined exclusively to the usual leaders.

Technology remains the dominant sector, but the sectoral picture appears broader: financials, staples and real estate are showing signs of strength; utilities and communications are recovering from weaker positions; discretionary and energy continue to lag.

The message is constructive, but not naive: broader breadth signals higher-quality rally conditions; still-incomplete breadth means selectivity remains mandatory.

WPI: reading rotation instead of chasing performance

The WPI-based Flexible Grid was used to assess the relative positioning of US sectors and international markets.

The underlying principle is that of rotation: assets cycle through weakness, strengthening, strength and weakening. Focusing solely on what is already strong risks producing late entries. Monitoring what is strengthening as well allows for the identification of potential regime transitions on a relative basis.

Over the long term, the equity picture still appears constructive, with many sectors in a position of strength. Over the short term, however, corrective phases and dispersion across sectors persist.

At the international level, cases such as South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Brazil, India and Pakistan were discussed. The common thread is the search for markets that, following a period of weakness, are showing recovery signals at meaningful technical and volume-based levels.

India and Pakistan: examples of rotation, not recommendations

India and Pakistan were cited as examples of potentially interesting structures within the WPI framework.

In the case of India, the long-term structure remains clean: a trading range phase, a breakout, a return toward significant volume areas and a possible test of demand. The presence of a climactic phase followed by a subsequent base-building process makes the case an interesting price action study.

In the case of Pakistan, attention was drawn to accumulation zones and technical levels that could attract price once again. Here too, the methodology matters more than the ticker: rotation, structure, volume and potential stop-sweep dynamics are all observed.

These are not trade ideas. They are examples of how the platform enables a transition from market view to the identification of concrete setups.

Seasonality: statistics must be filtered

The final part of the webinar introduced the seasonal watchlist produced by the Market Intelligence module of Domina Trading Suite.

The process is clear: the algorithms screen European and American instruments based on seasonal windows, average historical return, win rate, alignment between the current price curve and the seasonal curve, and synchronisation status.

This generates a watchlist, not a buy list.

A Brazilian case was presented featuring an already-triggered seasonality, a 100% historical win rate over ten years and an average trade exceeding 19%. Precisely because the statistical reading is so strong, the most important point was reiterated: liquidity, price, chart structure and the quality of the re-accumulation zone must all be verified before any trade hypothesis is entertained.

An excellent seasonality on an illiquid stock or one trading below $10 cannot be treated the same as an excellent seasonality on a liquid, institutionally-followed stock. The statistics may look identical on paper; the operational risk does not.

NDAQ: seasonality and technical structure within the same framework

Among the most noteworthy cases discussed was NDAQ, Nasdaq Inc.

The seasonal window shows a 100% historical win rate, with an average return lower than the Brazilian case but still meaningful. The stock was interpreted as a potential re-accumulation phase following a pullback, with institutional zones identified during the decline.

The educational value here is clear: a strong seasonality becomes far more compelling when it converges with coherent price action, institutional order blocks and a legible technical structure.

The logic remains the same throughout: seasonality does not dictate the trade. It qualifies it.

Setup report: long-term trend, short-term pullback

The new weekly setup report, also generated by the Market Intelligence module of Domina Trading Suite, was then presented.

The screening logic is oriented toward identifying stocks in a long-term trend that are undergoing a short-term pullback. This is a classic configuration: rather than buying already-extended strength, the aim is to find orderly retracements within trends that remain intact.

The report distinguishes between names better suited to a directional entry, classified as HOT, and optionable names on which strategies such as vertical spreads or similar structures may be considered, classified as VERTICAL.

Here too the message is methodological: the scanner narrows the field, but every decision still requires chart reading, a liquidity check, contextual analysis and compatibility with the chosen strategy.

The platform as a process, not a showcase

The webinar also highlighted several operational enhancements to Domina Trading Suite: a more compact interface, WPI modules, fundamentals, COT, smart money, dark pool, lit pool, insider data, detachable windows and forthcoming integration of the options section.

The interesting part is not the feature list. It is the way in which these features build a process:

• first, the market regime is assessed;
• then breadth is verified;
• then relative rotations are observed;
• then seasonality and setups are filtered;
• finally, chart, volume, flow and liquidity are reviewed.

This is what makes the Trading Room valuable: it does not simply surface "names" — it provides a method for arriving at them.

The closing message

The market enters the week on a more constructive note. Oil has lost momentum, US indices have rebounded, breadth is improving and certain international rotations are turning interesting again.

Yet the picture is not without risks. Rates remain the real crux of the matter. The Fed can shift the market's tone more decisively than oil can, should its message turn less accommodative. Geopolitical risks remain unresolved. And setups must be selected with discipline.

The methodology runs through all of it: macro, oil, rates, breadth, WPI, seasonality, institutional flows and price action. Everything together, with no shortcuts.

This content is intended exclusively for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation to invest or a personalised recommendation. The analyses referenced are derived from the Market Intelligence module of Domina Trading Suite and should be interpreted as market observations, not as individual trade recommendations.