The COT report dated 23 June depicts a market undergoing a widespread risk-reduction process, yet lacking a common direction. US indices recorded a sharp contraction in open contracts during the quarterly expiry week, the euro saw bearish positions increase, gold and silver sent diverging signals, while corn and WTI showed a strengthening of short-side pressure. The overall reading therefore remains selective: the flows indicate where exposure is being reduced or rebuilt, without turning a single weekly report into a stand-alone trading signal.
1. A Week of Selective Deleveraging
The common thread of the week is the reduction in open interest — that is, in the total number of futures contracts still outstanding. The contraction affected primarily the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Euro/Dollar, although the calendar warrants caution: for the two US indices, the report coincides with the quarterly expiry window, and part of the movement may reflect the rollover from expiring contracts to subsequent ones.
The composition of the flows nonetheless allows distinct dynamics to be identified. On the S&P 500, the net position of Asset Managers improved because short positions fell by more than long positions. On the Nasdaq 100, by contrast, the balance deteriorated due to the liquidation of bullish positions. Euro/Dollar recorded an increase in both longs and shorts, with a far larger rise in dollar-favourable bets. Among commodities, gold and natural gas showed a partial bullish build, while corn and WTI saw bearish pressure increase.
The distinction matters because a net position can improve even without new purchases. When the balance grows through short covering, the market is unwinding a bearish bet; when it grows through new longs, it is instead adding risk on the bullish side. The two dynamics produce the same mathematical sign, yet they describe very different participation.
| Market | Delta net / OI | Prevailing construction | Price and positioning | Historical percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0,44% | Short covering | Divergence | 83,3 |
| Nasdaq 100 | −2,66% | Long liquidation | Confirmation | 26,3 |
| Euro/Dollar | −1,99% | Predominantly new shorts | Confirmation | 21,8 |
| Gold | +0,48% | Partial bullish build | Divergence | 44,2 |
| Silver | −1,05% | Long liquidation | Confirmation | 29,5 |
| Corn | −1,32% | Predominantly new shorts | Neutral | 57,1 |
| Natural Gas | +0,14% | Partial bullish build | Neutral | 26,3 |
| WTI | −0,70% | Long liquidation and new shorts | Partial confirmation | 30,8 |
2. US Indices: the Same Decline, Two Different Constructions
S&P 500: the balance improves through short covering
The net position of Asset Managers on the S&P 500 rose from 984,009 to 992,729 contracts, an increase of 8,720 units, equivalent to 0.44% of current open interest. The figure appears bullish when viewed in isolation, but its composition yields a more cautious reading: long positions fell by 28,434 contracts and short positions by 37,154. The improvement therefore stems from a larger reduction in bearish hedges, while overall exposure contracted.
The open interest fell by 23.24%, an exceptional shift coinciding with the quarterly expiry. The rollover may have amplified the decline in open contracts and reduces the ability of a single week to describe a structural change. The net position nonetheless remains elevated relative to recent history: the 83.3rd percentile over the past 156 weeks signals already substantial institutional exposure. A concentration of this kind can support the market as long as flows remain favourable, but makes prices more sensitive should Asset Managers begin to reduce risk more decisively.
The future lost 1.08% over the week, while the net balance improved. The divergence between price and positioning lowers the quality of the signal, as the favourable flow stems primarily from short covering rather than a fresh expansion of long positions.
In the chart below, we observe how the price and the net position of Asset Managers moved in opposite directions in the latest reading.
Nasdaq 100: weakness driven by long liquidation
On the Nasdaq 100, the net position of Asset Managers declined from 71,133 to 63,778 contracts. The reduction of 7,355 contracts is equivalent to 2.66% of open interest and is the largest across the entire universe analysed. Long positions decreased by 8,956 contracts, while short positions were trimmed by 1,601: the pressure therefore stems primarily from the exit of investors previously positioned on the upside.
The price fell 1.10%, confirming the direction of positioning. Here too, open interest declined sharply, by 26.23%, and the quarterly expiry may have distorted the magnitude of the move. The comparison with the S&P 500 nonetheless remains instructive. On the broader benchmark, the net balance improved through short covering; on the Nasdaq, the reduction in long positions accompanied the decline in prices. The technology component therefore displayed a more consistent participation with the weakness in price.
The net position stands at the 26.3rd percentile of the 156-week sample, well below the concentration observed in the S&P 500. Over four weeks, the cumulative balance has decreased by 22,681 contracts, while over the past thirteen weeks it remains positive by 12,320. Recent flow signals a phase of risk reduction, yet still retains a portion of the positioning built up during the quarter.
In the chart below, we observe the confirmation between the decline in the Nasdaq 100 and the reduction in the institutional net position.
3. Euro/Dollar: demand for dollar protection increases
The net position of Asset Managers in Euro FX decreased from 270,344 to 254,730 contracts, a negative change of 15,614 contracts, equivalent to 1.99% of open interest. Institutional investors remain broadly net long the euro, but the week altered the composition of risk: long positions increased by 2,271 contracts and short positions by 17,885. The considerably larger growth in bearish positions reduced the balance and supported a more constructive reading for the dollar.
The EUR/USD pair fell 1.98%, confirming the COT movement. The 52-week COT Index stands at zero and the net position is at the 21.8th percentile over the past three years. These values indicate that the relative positioning of the euro has moved towards the lower end of its recent range, while remaining positive in absolute terms.
The reduction in the net balance continues across longer time horizons as well: −15,160 contracts over the past four weeks and −33,210 over the past thirteen. The build-up of short positions, accompanied by weakness in the exchange rate, renders the signal more consistent than that observed in the S&P 500. Whether the move is sustained will now depend on the continuity of flows and on the relative macroeconomic backdrop between the United States and the Eurozone, since the COT describes positioning but does not, on its own, identify the catalyst underpinning it.
In the chart below, we observe the decline in EUR/USD alongside the reduction in the net position of Asset Managers.
4. Precious metals: gold and silver diverge
Gold, new longs as price retreats
In gold, the Managed Money net position increased from 113,721 to 115,395 contracts. The change of 1,674 units, equivalent to 0.48% of open interest, stems from the simultaneous opening of 3,059 long and 1,385 short positions. The balance improves because buying activity prevails, while open interest rises by 3.78%, signalling the entry of new risk into the market.
The price, however, fell by 4.64%. The combination of declining prices and an increasing speculative position generates a divergence: a portion of Managed Money participants used the weakness to add exposure, but the flow was insufficient to support the market. Over four weeks, the net position grew by 17,949 contracts and over thirteen weeks by 23,774, confirming a broader rebuilding process beyond the single reading.
The position stands at the 44.2nd percentile of the past 156 weeks, a mid-range band that leaves room for both further construction and renewed liquidation. The signal remains fragile, as Managed Money and Swap Dealers have moved in opposite directions and price action has yet to confirm the increase in bullish exposure.
In the chart below, we observe the divergence between the decline in gold and the gradual rebuilding of the Managed Money net position.
Silver, the correction drives buyers away
Silver followed a different dynamic. The Managed Money net position fell from 12,885 to 11,741 contracts, a reduction of 1,144 units equivalent to 1.05% of open interest. Long positions decreased by 1,180 contracts and short positions by just 36: the change stems almost entirely from the liquidation of bullish exposures.
The price decline of 11.27% confirmed the direction of flows. The historical percentile of 29.5 and the 52-week COT Index of 17.8 place positioning in the lower portion of the recent range, though concentration remains ordinary. A less crowded positioning can reduce the risk of further forced selling, while a return of buying interest will require price stabilisation and a renewed expansion of long positions.
The medium-term picture is less negative than the single-week reading: the cumulative balance remains positive at 1,686 contracts over four weeks and 583 over thirteen. The correction has therefore interrupted the recent build-up without erasing it entirely.
In the chart below, we observe how the decline in silver was accompanied by the liquidation of bullish positions.
5. Corn: shorts return to dominance
The Managed Money net position in corn moved from −49,487 to −74,819 contracts. The deterioration of 25,332 units, equivalent to 1.32% of open interest, derives from a simultaneous increase in both longs and shorts: the former rose by 14,869 contracts, the latter by 40,201. The entry of new buyers is thus absorbed by a bearish build-up nearly three times as large.
The price shed 0.97%, a contained move relative to the intensity of the short flow. The relationship is classified as neutral because positioning pressure has not yet produced a proportional move in prices. Over four weeks the net balance has declined by 286,156 contracts and over thirteen by 354,449: the persistence of the bearish build represents the most significant element, even though the historical percentile at 57.1 does not yet signal an extreme.
The COT shows a growing preference among Managed Money for the short side, while the producers and commercial operators category moves in the opposite direction for hedging purposes. Confirmation of the trend will depend on plantings, yields, inventories, exports and weather conditions — variables capable of rapidly altering the physical market picture.
In the chart below we observe the progressive decline in the Managed Money net position relative to corn's price performance.
6. Energy: gas attempts to stabilise, WTI loses support
Natural Gas: balance improves but remains heavily short
In natural gas, the Managed Money net position moved from −84,909 to −82,722 contracts. The improvement of 2,187 units, equivalent to 0.14% of open interest, stems from 3,768 new longs and 1,581 new shorts. The bullish component prevails on the week, but the overall balance remains negative and continues to describe a market dominated by bearish positions.
The price fell 2.84% and did not confirm the shift in the balance. Open interest declined 1.91%, while overall participation remains weak. The weekly reading takes on greater significance when placed within the recent sequence: the net position has improved by 51,704 contracts over the last four weeks, following a deterioration of 28,567 over thirteen. Managed Money are therefore reducing a portion of the bearish exposure accumulated previously, without having yet completed a reversal.
The historical percentile at 26.3 and the COT Index 52 at 38.5 place the balance in the lower part of the range, but far from an extreme condition. Seasonality, contract expiries and gas volatility require confirmation through price and physical fundamentals — in particular production, storage levels and temperature-driven demand.
In the chart below we observe the gradual recovery in the net position, still lacking stable confirmation from price.
WTI: long liquidation and opening of new short positions
WTI presents the most complete bearish construction of the week. The Managed Money net position fell from 96,228 to 82,872 contracts, a reduction of 13,356 units equivalent to 0.70% of open interest. The move combines the closing of 10,490 longs with the opening of 2,866 shorts: operators reduced their bullish exposure while simultaneously adding risk in the opposite direction.
The price lost 3.73% and partially confirmed the deterioration in positioning. Open interest declined 4.77%, signalling that an important portion of the move remains tied to an overall reduction in risk. Swap Dealers, by contrast, improved their balance by 12,573 contracts — a divergence consistent with the different economic function of the two categories and with intermediation and hedging activities.
The historical percentile at 30.8 and the z-score at −0.50 describe an exposure below the average, but still within ordinary bounds. Over four weeks the net position remains positive by 2,948 contracts, while over thirteen it retreats by 11,464. The reading therefore weakens the near-term picture without placing the market at an extreme capable, on its own, of suggesting a reversal.
In the following chart we observe the reduction in the net position on WTI alongside the decline in prices.
7. Final Reading
The 23 June report reveals a market less inclined to accumulate risk in the same direction. On the S&P 500, the institutional balance improves, but through short covering and against a backdrop of a sharp contraction in open interest. On the Nasdaq 100, the liquidation of long positions accompanies the price decline, making the signal more consistent. EUR/USD confirms greater demand for dollar exposure, while the precious metals diverge between the bullish build-up in gold and the liquidation observed in silver.
Cyclical commodities maintain a more clearly bearish bias. In corn, the increase in short positions dominates new longs and extends a trend already visible over the past four and thirteen weeks. In WTI, the combination of liquidation of bullish positions and the opening of new shorts weakens the short-term picture. Natural gas shows an initial recovery in the balance, but the position remains deeply negative and the price has yet to confirm the improvement.
Operational Reading
The COT report suggests maintaining a selective approach. The clearest confirmation relates to the reduction of risk on the Nasdaq 100, the strengthening of dollar-favourable positions, and the bearish pressure on corn and WTI. The S&P 500 and gold, by contrast, display divergences between price and positioning, while natural gas remains in a phase of possible stabilisation that is not yet complete. Upcoming reports will need to show whether the deleveraging on the indices was predominantly linked to the rollover, and whether the new shorts on currencies and commodities will continue to grow beyond the current week.
Methodological Note. The report uses the CFTC Futures Only reports: Asset Manager/Institutional for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Euro FX; Managed Money for gold, silver, corn, natural gas and WTI. The data captures aggregate positions as of Tuesday and is published with a delay. Percentiles, the COT Index and changes in open interest describe concentration and participation, but do not constitute a standalone timing system, an entry level or an operational recommendation.