The dollar leads, but the market remains selective

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USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD

Week

WPI / Seasonality

Update 28/06/2026

COT Report

Data as of 23/06/2026

1. The week's message

The currency market continues to reward the dollar, which retains the most solid relative structure among the major currencies. Leadership, however, is not yet fully consolidated over the medium-to-long term: the DXY maintains a constructive bias, but has not yet completed the transition towards a fully structural phase of strength. The overall picture therefore remains favourable to the greenback, without however justifying indiscriminate buying against all the majors. Weakness is most evident in the yen and the New Zealand dollar, while the reading on other currencies must remain selective, distinguishing between structural trends and potential tactical recoveries. At this stage, the edge does not come from holding a single directional view on the dollar, but from identifying the currencies that present the most fragile combination of relative strength, rate expectations, seasonality and institutional positioning.

Leadership

USD dominant in the near term

The dollar's strength does not depend on a single counterpart: weakness is broad-based across the entire basket.

Fragility

GBP, AUD and NZD the most exposed counterparts

Deteriorating flows and relative weakness make these currencies the most vulnerable points in the basket.

Contrary signals

JPY, CHF and CAD require confirmation

On these currencies, forwards, seasonality and institutional flows are not yet fully aligned.

2. Flexible Grid / WPI

The tactical picture is clear-cut: the DXY is in Strong, while all currencies considered against the dollar are in Weak. The strategic reading is less extreme but points in the same direction: the dollar is in structural recovery, while the other majors are losing momentum or already in confirmed weakness.

WPI lungo termine — **WPI Long Term.** DXY in Improving; JPY and NZD in Weak; EUR, GBP, CAD, CHF and AUD in Weakening.

WPI breve termine — **WPI Short Term.** DXY the sole element in Strong; all other majors in Weak.

Reading convention. In the Flexible Grid all currencies are normalised with the dollar in the denominator. Consequently, JPY/USD, CHF/USD and CAD/USD are then restated in standard market format as USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD, reversing the directional implication.

Currency / index	Short-term WPI	Long-term WPI	Translation to the standard pair
DXY	Strong	Improving	Dollar leadership broadening; long-term structure still in the confirmation phase.
EUR	Weak	Weakening	Negative pressure on EUR/USD.
GBP	Weak	Weakening	Negative pressure on GBP/USD.
AUD	Weak	Weakening	Negative pressure on AUD/USD.
NZD	Weak	Weak	Structural and tactical weakness on NZD/USD.
JPY	Weak	Weak	Implication favourable to USD/JPY, as long as the yen does not rotate into Improving.
CHF	Weak	Weakening	Implication favourable to USD/CHF.
CAD	Weak	Weakening	Implication favourable to USD/CAD.

3. Seasonality and maximum synchronisation

The most synchronised curve is not the same for all currencies. The most robust reading is for the DXY: the 15-year window is in Stable Sync and maintains a bias favourable to the dollar. For EUR, AUD and NZD the dominant path remains weak. CAD and CHF are the main exceptions, as their seasonality points to a more constructive phase relative to the WPI reading.

Massima sincronizzazione stagionale — **Max Sync.** The platform selects, for each currency, the historical depth that is best replicating the current price behaviour.

Instrument	Max Sync curve	Status	Reading of the current window
DXY	15 years	Stable Sync	The pattern remains favourable to the dollar and reinforces the WPI reading.
EUR	15 years	Out of Sync	Seasonal direction broadly negative, but synchronisation not fully reliable.
GBP	5 years	Entering Sync	Possible initial recovery, followed by a less favourable window further ahead.
CAD	15 years	Entering Sync	More constructive seasonal phase for CAD: divergence relative to the WPI.
CHF	5 years	Entering Sync	Pattern favourable to the franc over the short-to-medium term, in contrast with the rotational weakness.
JPY	10 years	Unknown	Signal not sufficiently stable; seasonality adds no conviction.
AUD	5 years	Entering Sync	Weak seasonal trajectory beyond the current point, consistent with WPI and COT.
NZD	10 years	Entering Sync	Unfavourable window through the remainder of summer, consistent with structural weakness.

4. COT Report — Asset Manager

The central reading is not a static snapshot of positioning, but the way in which longs and shorts are changing. This week marginal pressure is negative across nearly all majors. Sterling shows the sharpest deterioration; euro, NZD and AUD follow. The yen is the only currency posting a meaningful weekly improvement, even as its structure remains skewed to the short side.

Asset	Total Long	Total Short	Δ Long	Δ Short	Delta change	Reading
DXY / USD	21.027	2.317	+892	+533	+359	Supportive Long stock and weekly flow still positive.
EUR	462.293	207.563	+2.271	+17.885	−15.614	Negative Stock still heavily long, but the week is dominated by an increase in shorts.
GBP	13.165	162.589	−3.187	+32.769	−35.956	Very Negative The sharpest weekly deterioration across the entire basket.
AUD	56.236	93.243	−1.636	+3.920	−5.556	Negative Reduction in longs and new shorts within the same week.
NZD	7.877	58.356	+251	+8.909	−8.658	Negative New shorts fully absorb the modest increase in longs.
JPY	72.898	151.262	+753	−2.534	+3.287	Improving Remains net short, but flow improves on new longs and short covering.
CHF	8.112	47.881	+121	+1.525	−1.404	Negative The short component continues to grow faster than longs.
CAD	52.526	136.394	−1.123	−874	−249	Near Neutral Stock still heavily short, but the weekly change is contained.

The key point. The COT primarily confirms the fragility of GBP, AUD and NZD. On the euro, the stock remains heavily long, but marginal flow has turned against the currency. On the yen, the opposite applies: the position remains short, but the week shows an initial absorption of bearish pressure.

5. Official Rates and 1-Year Forwards

Official rates and 1-year forward levels: reading the curve

The comparison places the current official rate alongside the 1-year forward rate. The forward is not a definitive forecast of the next central bank decision: it is the implied level embedded in the curve and serves to gauge whether the market, over the annual horizon, is pricing a more restrictive, more accommodative, or broadly unchanged policy stance.

Currency	Current Official Rate	1Y Forward	Message
USD	3,50%–3,75% Federal Funds target range	4,265%	Restrictive The forward sits above the current Fed range: the curve embeds higher rates over the annual horizon, an element consistent with the dollar's leadership in the WPI.
EUR	2,25% ECB deposit facility; MRO 2.40%	2,610%	Moderate hike The market embeds a level above the current rate. Monetary support is present, but for now does not offset the weakness observed in the WPI and in the COT flow.
GBP	3,75% Bank Rate	4,241%	Hike priced in The curve points to higher rates in a year's time. This is a notable divergence: the potential support from yields finds no confirmation in the WPI structure or in sterling's marked COT deterioration.
JPY	1,00% Overnight call rate target	1,598%	Normalisation The forward embeds further BoJ tightening. This is the monetary signal most consistent with the recent improvement in yen COT flow, even though the WPI remains weak.
CHF	0,00% SNB policy rate	−0,147%	Accommodative The curve dips slightly below zero, embedding a more accommodative policy stance. The monetary backdrop therefore does not support the franc's more constructive seasonality.
CAD	2,25% Target overnight rate	2,959%	Decisive hike The market embeds a significant increase in the rate level. This is a potential tailwind for the CAD, but it remains at odds with WPI weakness and a COT structure still heavily skewed to the short side.
AUD	4,35% Cash rate target	4,400%	Near stable The forward is broadly aligned with the current rate. The curve offers no new monetary impulse, leaving WPI, COT and seasonality as the primary drivers in the AUD read.
NZD	2,25% Official Cash Rate	3,800%	Sharp repricing This is the largest implied rate increase across the basket. The curve builds a potential floor of support for the NZD, but price action has yet to validate it: WPI and COT remain clearly fragile.

How to read the block. The most interesting signal is not the absolute level of the forward, but its consistency with the other modules. JPY shows an initial alignment between monetary normalisation and an improvement in COT; CAD, GBP and especially NZD, by contrast, present more restrictive forwards without equally clear confirmation from WPI and positioning. AUD is almost neutral, while CHF incorporates a marginal return below zero.

Official rates verified as at 28 June 2026. Sources: Federal Reserve · ECB · Bank of England · Bank of Japan · Swiss National Bank · Bank of Canada · Reserve Bank of Australia · Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

6. Major pairs map

GBP/USD

Dominant driverSterling is weighed down by a net deterioration in Asset Manager flow, with a reduction in longs and an aggressive build-up of shorts.

ConfirmationDollar demand remains more solid and seasonality does not offer, beyond a possible initial recovery, support strong enough to reverse the picture.

DivergenceThe British forward prices in a higher rate level one year out: a potential support that, for now, finds no confirmation in flows.

Change conditionThe picture would become less negative with a halt in the expansion of shorts and a sustained return of institutional buying in sterling.

AUD/USD

Dominant driverThe increase in Asset Manager shorts maintains pressure on AUD and reinforces underperformance against the dollar.

ConfirmationThe five-year seasonal trajectory tilts downward after the current point, while the almost unchanged forward introduces no new monetary catalyst.

DivergenceThe Australian cash rate remains among the highest in the basket and retains carry support, but without additional repricing capable of altering the reading.

Change conditionShort covering, rebuilding of longs and a price reaction capable of interrupting the negative seasonal trajectory are all required.

NZD/USD

Dominant driverThe growth in Asset Manager shorts keeps the New Zealand dollar among the most fragile currencies in the basket.

ConfirmationThe ten-year seasonal window remains unfavourable and does not, at this stage, signal a reliable base for a sustained recovery.

DivergenceThe forward at 3.800% represents the most pronounced restrictive repricing in the group, but the theoretical support from rates has not yet fed through into flows or price.

Change conditionThe view would shift with a clear reduction in shorts and the conversion of monetary repricing into effective demand for NZD.

EUR/USD

Dominant driverWeekly flow remains negative, leaving the euro exposed to further profit-taking on the still substantial stock of long positions.

ConfirmationDollar leadership makes it harder to absorb fresh position unwinding, particularly in the absence of a recovery in institutional buying.

DivergenceAsset Managers nonetheless maintain a significant long exposure and the European forward sits above the current official rate: the picture does not amount to a capitulation of the euro.

Change conditionA sustained recovery in longs would arrest the pressure; conversely, an acceleration in their reduction would make the bearish signal more pronounced.

USD/JPY

Dominant driverThe persistent fragility of the yen continues to support the pair in the conventional USD/JPY denomination.

ConfirmationThe dollar retains basket leadership and maintains an advantage for as long as yen demand does not become more substantial.

DivergenceCOT data show new longs and short covering in yen, while the forward prices in further normalisation by the Bank of Japan.

Change conditionA second consecutive improvement in flows, accompanied by additional restrictive repricing, would materially reduce the quality of the bullish view on USD/JPY.

USD/CHF

Dominant driverAsset Manager flow remains unfavourable to the franc and the slightly negative forward prices in a still accommodative monetary policy stance.

ConfirmationIn the absence of new institutional buying on CHF, the dollar retains the relative advantage in the pair.

DivergenceThe five-year seasonality is more constructive for the franc and may limit the linearity of the move in USD/CHF.

Trigger conditionThe combination of seasonal recovery and rebuilding of long positions on the franc would transform the divergence into a genuine reversal signal.

USD/CAD

Dominant driverThe Asset Manager positioning, still heavily short the Canadian dollar, continues to support USD/CAD.

ConfirmationThe week does not show short-covering significant enough to signal a change in institutional behaviour.

DivergenceThe fifteen-year seasonality is more favourable to the CAD, and the forward rate at 2.959% prices in a more restrictive policy stance relative to the current official rate.

Trigger conditionCoordinated short-covering, accompanied by a price response to monetary repricing, would make the backdrop less supportive of the dollar.

7. Scenario map

Dominant scenario

The dollar retains the near-term lead, but the advantage is not uniform across all counterparts. The most linear setup remains against GBP, AUD and NZD; the euro still carries a sizeable long positioning overhang, while JPY, CHF and CAD display conflicting signals that call for greater selectivity. Structural confirmation would come from a continuation of DXY leadership without a broad recovery in flows into the other majors.

What could invalidate it

Loss of the dollar's relative near-term leadership.
Simultaneous short-covering and a return of buying interest in GBP, AUD and NZD.
Continuation of institutional improvement in the yen alongside further monetary normalisation.
Transformation of the forward repricing in CAD, GBP or NZD into effective and persistent demand for the respective currencies.

Conclusion. The backdrop remains dollar-supportive, but counterpart selection is decisive. GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD offer the most linear read; EUR/USD warrants attention given the long positioning overhang still in place, while USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD remain constrained by conflicting signals in flows, forwards or seasonality.