Week 27 / 2026

Global indices posted their best week since May. The STOXX Europe 600 closed with a weekly gain of approximately 2,6%, while the MSCI World moved around +2%. The message is not, however, 'buy everything': the market bought risk, but began to be more selective about where to take it.³

In the United States the rally held up, but with a more fragile finish for the Nasdaq, weighed down by weakness in semiconductors. In Europe, by contrast, the week was cleaner: less aggressive valuations, lower dependence on the AI trade, and a greater contribution from cyclical and financial sectors.

The week's central macro data point was the US labour market. In June, nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57.000 jobs, against higher expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4,2%. The May figure was revised from +172.000 to +129.000, with a combined April and May revision of -74.000 jobs.¹

The market reacted in classic fashion: lower probability of an immediate Fed rate hike, a weaker dollar, and support for gold, bonds and equities. But this is not a dovish pivot. It is merely a tactical deferral of rate pressure.

The ISM manufacturing index confirmed an economy still in expansion, though not a buoyant one: the June PMI fell to 53,3 from 54,0. The prices index declined to 73,0 from 82,1, but remains at elevated levels. Manufacturing is slowing, but cost pressures have not disappeared.⁶

The Fed under Kevin Warsh remains focused on the 2% inflation target and has reduced its reliance on forward guidance. This increases the weight of actual data and FOMC minutes: the market can no longer count on the same pre-emptive communication protection seen in previous phases.⁷

For Week 28, the minutes of the June Fed meeting will be the key document. The market will need to gauge how divided the Committee is between the labour market slowdown and the risk of persistent inflation.

Europe was one of the strongest areas of the week. Support comes from three factors: declining inflation, more reasonable valuations relative to the United States, and lower exposure to the most speculative part of the AI trade.

Eurozone inflation fell to 2,8% in June from 3,2% in May. The services component is estimated at 3,2%, down from 3,5%The backdrop reduces the urgency for the ECB to push through an immediate additional rate hike, even as inflation remains above target.⁴

The Eurozone services PMI rose to49,4It seems the text got cut off. Could you please provide the full Italian text you'd like me to translate?47,7remains in contraction, but the pace of deterioration has eased. The Composite PMI at50,0signals a stabilisation, not a genuine acceleration.⁵

It seems the text got cut off. Could you please provide the complete Italian text you'd like me to translate?52,881 pointsIt seems your text got cut off. Could you please provide the complete text you'd like me to translate?5%The compression of the spread continues to support banks and the domestic market, but the real Italian risk lies in the absolute level of rates applied to a large debt stock, not in the spread taken in isolation.¹²

The week has clarified a critical distinction: AI remains a megatrend, but the market is no longer indiscriminately buying everything that carries the word "AI."

It looks like your message got cut off. Could you please provide the complete text you'd like me to translate?$41.46 billionIt looks like the text got cut off. Could you please provide the complete sentence or passage you'd like me to translate?28.24 billionIt seems your message got cut off. Could you please provide the full text you'd like me to translate?$24.67It seems the text you've provided is incomplete. Could you please share the full text you'd like me to translate?25.39 billionThe figure confirms that AI-driven memory demand is not merely a narrative: it is already income statement and cash flow.⁸

At the same time, the chip sector suffered a sharp sell-off. The reading is clear: real earnings are keeping the theme afloat, but extreme valuations are no longer immune to profit-taking. The market is demanding margins, contracts, production capacity and visibility — not just storytelling.

The labor market data eased pressure on Treasuries, but did not trigger a regime change. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury moved around the4,49%July 2nd: a level still consistent with a restrictive monetary policy stance.¹¹

Flows remain robust. Global bond funds have continued to attract capital, while equity funds have benefited from a return of demand toward technology, financials and healthcare. The point is that flows are not retreating from risk: they are becoming more selective about the quality of the risk being taken on.¹⁰

Operational risk is complacency on credit. With rates still elevated and the Fed remaining non-accommodative, high yield can continue to be supported by flows, but it is by no means a risk-free asset.

The energy market is not saying that geopolitical risk has disappeared. It is saying something more precise: the extreme stress scenario tied to the Strait of Hormuz is no longer being priced in as the base case.

• The rally holds, but its composition is shifting.Rotation out of the most stretched tech names can improve overall market quality, provided it does not escalate into broad-based contagion.
• The Fed is less urgent, not accommodative.A weak payroll figure reduces the likelihood of an immediate rate hike, but does not put the inflation debate to rest.
• AI enters a mature phase.Micron's results confirm genuine demand; the chip sell-off signals that the market is no longer willing to accept valuations without continuous scrutiny.

Week 27 was not a week of straightforward gains. It was a week of internal market repositioning.

The global rally remains alive, but is shifting from a narrow, expensive leadership to a broader structure: Europe, industrials, financials, healthcare, gold and credit all posted stronger signals relative to pure tech. This is constructive, but also more selective.