Equity still dominant, but the 60/40 portfolio offers better protection for the month
0.Message of the Month
Monthly return:-0,14%The portfolio does not gain ground, but it is the one that loses the least within the observed basket.
Year-to-date return:+8,95%Leadership is tied to equity weighting.
The figure indicates the optimal operational trade-off between generated performance and drawdown recorded over the period.
1.Brief description of the portfolios
The monitor compares five asset allocation models with distinct functions: defensive portfolios, balanced portfolios, institutional benchmarks, and models with heavy equity exposure. The reading is not an absolute ranking, but a map plotting the relationship between return, volatility, drawdown, and recovery speed.
# Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio
Built to navigate different regimes: growth, recession, inflation, and disinflation. The fixed income component is dominant, while gold and commodities serve as real hedges.
Warren Buffett Portfolio
High equity-beta portfolio. Performs very well during positive equity cycles, but accepts structurally deeper drawdowns.
# Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
A model designed to always have one leg capable of reacting: equities, bonds, cash/Treasury bills and gold. It is less aggressive, but not immune when bonds and gold fail to offset losses.
Stocks/Bonds 60/40
It is the classic asset-allocation benchmark: enough equity to capture growth, enough bonds to dampen volatility and market shocks.
Davide Pisicchio Four Seasons USD
A dollar-denominated balanced portfolio, with a softer structure than the traditional 60/40 and closer to models diversified by cycle, duration, and gold.
2.Monthly Dashboard
| Portfolio | Monthly return | YTD Return | Max Drawdown YTD | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio 30% equities · 55% fixed income · 15% commodities |
-1,43% | +4,62% | -1,43% | Monthly weakness Strong YTD performance, but the negative month highlights the sensitivity to the combination of duration and real assets. |
| Warren Buffett Portfolio 90% equities · 10% fixed income · 0% commodities |
-0,86% | +8,95% | -0,86% | Relative strength Year-to-date leaders: 2026 has continued to reward equity exposure. |
| # Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio 25% equities · 50% fixed income · 25% commodities |
-2,70% | +1,69% | -5,02% | Monthly weakness The month's weakest performer: the defensive structure failed to find full compensation across gold, bonds, and equities. |
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 60% equities · 40% fixed income · 0% commodities |
-0,14% | +6,92% | -0,14% | Best month Best monthly resilience: the bond component contained the drawdown without offsetting the equity contribution. |
| Davide Pisicchio Four Seasons USD 40% equities · 50% fixed income · 10% commodities |
-1,32% | +4,89% | -1,32% | Monthly weakness In keeping with the multi-asset logic: it does not dominate the month, but remains competitive in terms of the risk/return trade-off. |
3.Long-Term Metrics
The 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-year windows serve to separate monthly noise from model robustness. Return indicates direction, standard deviation measures variability, Sharpe and Sortino describe risk quality, while the Ulcer Index and Maximum Drawdown capture the depth and duration of the pain endured by the investor.
1Y Horizon
| Portfolio | Return | Std. Deviation | Sharpe | Sortino | Ulcer Index | Max Drawdown | Start to Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio All Weather | +12,22% | 6,56% | 1,28 | 1,65 | 0,97 | -3,08% | 2 months |
| Warren Buffett Portfolio | +19,94% | 11,41% | 1,41 | 2,21 | 1,50 | -5,28% | 3 months |
| Harry Browne Permanent | +13,99% | 9,39% | 1,08 | 1,34 | 2,34 | -5,30% | 4 months* |
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +15,21% | 7,79% | 1,46 | 2,11 | 1,03 | -3,69% | 2 months |
| Davide Pisicchio Four Seasons USD | +14,68% | 7,31% | 1,49 | 1,84 | 1,18 | -4,05% | 2 months |
5Y Horizon
| Portfolio | Return | Std. Deviation | Sharpe | Sortino | Ulcer Index | Max Drawdown | Start to Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio All Weather | +3,52% | 10,21% | 0,01 | 0,01 | 9,53 | -20,58% | 42 months |
| Warren Buffett Portfolio | +11,91% | 14,40% | 0,59 | 0,79 | 7,95 | -23,08% | 24 months |
| Harry Browne Permanent | +7,18% | 8,80% | 0,42 | 0,56 | 5,92 | -15,92% | 27 months |
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +7,52% | 11,37% | 0,36 | 0,48 | 7,71 | -20,69% | 26 months |
| Davide Pisicchio Four Seasons USD | +7,51% | 9,02% | 0,45 | 0,59 | 6,14 | -17,32% | 26 months |
10Y Horizon
| Portfolio | Return | Std. Deviation | Sharpe | Sortino | Ulcer Index | Max Drawdown | Start to Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio All Weather | +5,65% | 8,51% | 0,40 | 0,55 | 6,92 | -20,58% | 42 months |
| Warren Buffett Portfolio | +14,18% | 13,91% | 0,86 | 1,14 | 6,24 | -23,08% | 24 months |
| Harry Browne Permanent | +7,04% | 7,59% | 0,64 | 0,88 | 4,49 | -15,92% | 27 months |
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +9,72% | 10,45% | 0,72 | 0,95 | 5,76 | -20,69% | 26 months |
| Davide Pisicchio Four Seasons USD | +8,71% | 8,09% | 0,80 | 1,06 | 4,52 | -17,32% | 26 months |
20Y Horizon
| Portfolio | Return | Std. Deviation | Sharpe | Sortino | Ulcer Index | Max Drawdown | Start to Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio All Weather | +6,88% | 7,94% | 0,67 | 0,90 | 5,31 | -20,58% | 42 months |
| Warren Buffett Portfolio | +10,66% | 13,81% | 0,66 | 0,87 | 10,50 | -45,52% | 42 months |
| Harry Browne Permanent | +7,18% | 7,38% | 0,77 | 1,06 | 3,77 | -15,92% | 27 months |
| Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +8,40% | 9,93% | 0,69 | 0,91 | 6,73 | -30,55% | 36 months |
| Davide Pisicchio Four Seasons USD | +7,86% | 7,67% | 0,82 | 1,09 | 4,36 | -18,91% | 25 months |
4. Operational Ranking
Best performer on a relative basis during the month and year-to-date leader
Best relative resilience over the month just concluded.
Year-to-date leadership, driven by equity weight.
Operational ratio between YTD performance and recorded drawdown.
5. Market Regime Reading
What favoured the top-performing portfolios
The month reveals an important distinction: relative monthly performance and year-to-date performance do not coincide. The 60/40 performed better over the short term because the correction was contained and the fixed income component did not amplify the negative move. The Buffett Portfolio instead dominates the YTD figure because 2026 remains, through June, an environment favourable to equity beta.
The Four Seasons USD and the All Weather remain in the intermediate group: both benefit from diversification, but pay a price for their duration exposure and real-asset components when the market does not simultaneously reward bonds, gold and commodities. The Permanent Portfolio appears the most fragile during the month, a signal that a defensive structure is insufficient when its principal legs are not pulling in the same direction.
Interpretation Framework
- Strong equity: favours Warren Buffett and, secondarily, the 60/40.
- Falling rates: supports All Weather, Permanent and Four Seasons.
- Strong gold: underpins Permanent, Four Seasons and All Weather.
- Deep risk-off: rewards the most diversified portfolios only if bonds and gold absorb the shock.
- Sideways market: places Ulcer Index control and recovery time at centre stage.
6. Final Commentary
The June data confirms that no portfolio is "best" in absolute terms: there is only a portfolio that is more consistent with the prevailing market regime. Over the short term, the 60/40 offered the greatest resilience, while year-to-date leadership remains with the Warren Buffett Portfolio, supported by equity market strength. The key variable to monitor in the coming months will be the sustainability of equity beta: if the market remains constructive, the more equity-heavy portfolios will continue to dominate; if volatility, rate pressure or macro stress increase, the ability of multi-asset models to contain drawdowns and recovery times will once again prove decisive.
The Observatory should be read as follows: the monthly return reflects the most recent regime; the 5-, 10- and 20-year metrics reflect the robustness of the model. The real question is not simply who generated the highest return, but who produced that return via the least fragile path.
7. Sources and Methodology
Content (text and/or images) produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence, under the editorial responsibility of the newsroom.