The COT report of 30 June depicts a market recomposing risk in a selective manner. The net balance improves on the Nasdaq 100, gold, silver, natural gas, corn and soybeans, while the S&P 500, copper and WTI show a reduction in exposure. The picture appears less defensive than the previous week, yet remains far from a uniform rebuilding of risk appetite.
1. A Selective Risk Recomposition
The common thread of the week is dispersion. The Nasdaq 100 rebuilds exposure through new longs and a modest reduction in shorts, while the S&P 500 retreats as bullish positions are liquidated. In commodities, the signal is divided: gold and silver attract dip-buying, copper sheds risk, natural gas confirms a more visible rebuilding phase, and WTI remains fragile.
Open interest helps gauge the quality of the moves. The Nasdaq 100, gold, natural gas and Euro FX all register increased participation; corn and soybeans, by contrast, show sharp contractions in open contracts of −9.84% and −10.74% respectively. This picture signals that part of the net improvement in agricultural commodities stems from the closing of short positions rather than from fresh directional capital.
The distinction remains central: a net balance can improve because longs increase, because shorts decrease, or because both components move in tandem. The first configuration describes accumulation; the second signals short covering; the third warrants caution, as the market is reducing gross risk even while improving the net balance.
| Market | Delta net / OI | Prevailing construction | Price and positioning | Historical percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −0,78% | Long liquidation | Pure positioning | 76,9 |
| Nasdaq 100 | +1,49% | New longs and short covering | Improving positioning | 37,2 |
| Euro/Dollar | +0,05% | Near-stable balance | Marginal confirmation | 22,4 |
| Gold | +1,27% | Bullish construction | Divergence | 44,9 |
| Silver | +1,87% | Bullish construction | Divergence | 31,4 |
| Copper | −2,69% | Long liquidation | Divergence | 83,3 |
| Corn | +0,45% | Prevailing short covering | Partial confirmation | 58,3 |
| Soybean | +0,13% | Prevailing short covering | Neutrality | 63,5 |
| Natural Gas | +1,10% | Prevailing new longs | Confirmation | 37,2 |
| WTI | −0,08% | Long liquidation | Confirmation | 29,5 |
2. US Indices: S&P Reduces, Nasdaq Rebuilds
S&P 500: net balance declines as longs are closed
The net position of Asset Managers on the S&P 500 fell from 994,992 to 979,498 contracts, a reduction of 15,494 units equivalent to −0.78% of current open interest. The move stems from a contraction in longs of 21,986 contracts, exceeding the reduction in shorts of 6,492.
Open interest declined by −0.58%, an ordinary variation following the distortion of the previous week. The historical percentile of 76.9 keeps the balance in an still-elevated range, but the 52-week COT Index at 62.2 indicates that recent positioning has shed some of its bullish tension.
In the chart below we observe the net positions by category on the S&P 500, with Asset Managers still broadly positive but reducing in the latest report.
Nasdaq 100: the recovery is driven by new longs
On the Nasdaq 100, the net position of Asset Managers rose from 63,778 to 68,195 contracts. The increase of +4,417 units is equivalent to 1.49% of open interest and combines +4,023 new longs with a reduction in shorts of 394 contracts.
Participation rose by 7.16%, signalling a return of interest following the sharp prior compression. The historical percentile remains modest at 37.2, while the cumulative four-week balance stays negative at 12,085 contracts. The weekly rebuild improves the overall picture, though confirmation over longer time horizons has yet to be established.
In the chart below we observe the rebound in institutional positioning on the Nasdaq 100, in a context where positioning remains less crowded than on the S&P 500.
3. Euro/Dollar: balance steady, exchange rate posts a modest recovery
The net position of Asset Managers in Euro FX moved from 254,730 to 255,158 contracts. The change is a positive of just 428 contracts, equivalent to 0.05% of open interest. Both longs and shorts increased together, by +8,309 and +7,881 contracts respectively, reflecting a rise in participation rather than a clear directional bias.
EUR/USD gained 0.29% over the week, while the 52-week COT Index remains at 0.3. The balance therefore retains a low reading relative to the past year, even as the exchange rate has recovered some ground. Over four weeks, the net position is still down 30,763 contracts, confirming that demand for euro exposure remains subdued.
In the chart below we observe the EUR/USD exchange rate alongside net positions by category, useful for distinguishing the modest price recovery from the stability of the institutional balance.
4. Metals: buying on dips and a more fragile copper
Gold: Managed Money accumulating as price pulls back
In gold, the Managed Money net position increased from 115,395 to 120,091 contracts. The improvement of +4,696 contracts, equal to 1.27% of open interest, was driven by +3,475 new longs and the closing of 1,221 short positions.
The price declined 2.59% over the week, creating a divergence between price action and positioning. The historical percentile of 44.9 places the balance in an intermediate range: buying on dips is evident, yet concentration remains far from speculative excess.
In the chart below we observe the divergence between the gold price and the Managed Money net position, with a rebuild in the balance occurring during a week of declining prices.
Silver: balance improves despite price pressure
The Managed Money net position in silver rose from 11,741 to 13,782 contracts, an increase of +2,041 units. The move is equivalent to 1.87% of open interest and combines +1,790 new longs with 251 shorts closed.
Prices fell 4.10%, yet the cumulative balance remains positive both over four weeks (+3,338) and over thirteen (+2,516). The 52-week COT Index at 23.4, however, signals a position that is still low relative to the recent range.
In the chart below we observe silver declining in price alongside the net position rebuild — a combination that requires confirmation in upcoming reports.
Copper: pressure driven by long liquidation
Copper shows the most intense pressure in normalised terms. The Managed Money net position fell from 66,547 to 59,703 contracts, a reduction of 6,844 units equivalent to −2.69% of open interest. Long positions declined by 6,561 contracts, while short positions increased by +283.
The price rose 0.84%, while positioning lost momentum. The historical percentile of 83.3 keeps the balance in elevated territory, but the weekly move signals profit-taking and a diminished willingness to chase the rally.
In the following chart we observe copper with a price still well supported and a reduction in the net position of Managed Money.
5. Agricultural commodities: short covering amid declining open interest
Corn: the improvement stems from short closures
The net position of Managed Money in corn moved from −74,819 to −66,996 contracts. The improvement of +7,823 contracts, equivalent to 0.45% of open interest, is driven primarily by the covering of 23,260 short positions. Long positions declined by 15,437 contracts, signalling a reduction in gross risk exposure.
The price gained 0.73%, but open interest fell 9.84%. Confirmation therefore appears only partial: the net balance improves and the price rises, while overall participation contracts sharply. Over thirteen weeks, the net position remains in deterioration by 324,948 contracts.
In the following chart we observe corn with a net position still negative, despite the weekly recovery driven by short covering.
Soybean: modest improvement in the balance amid declining participation
In soybeans, the net position of Managed Money rose from 36,986 to 38,149 contracts, an increase of +1,163 contracts. Here too the dynamic originates from the covering of short positions, totalling 9,935 contracts, against a reduction in longs of 8,772.
The price remained virtually unchanged, posting a decline of 0.02%, while open interest fell 10.74%. The historical percentile of 63.5 reflects a moderately positive balance, but the outflows from gross positions limit the quality of the signal.
In the following chart we observe soybeans with a positive net balance, set within a phase of reduction in overall exposure.
6. Energy: natural gas confirms strength, WTI remains fragile
Natural Gas: new longs reduce the short imbalance
In natural gas, the net position of Managed Money improved from −82,722 to −64,808 contracts. The balance remains negative, but the weekly change is substantial: +17,914 contracts, equivalent to 1.10% of open interest. The primary driver is the opening of +18,470 new long positions.
The price gained 4.07%, confirming the direction of positioning. The 52-week COT Index at 51.8 brings the balance back towards a middle range, while the cumulative four-week improvement reaches +50,046 contracts. Natural gas retains elevated volatility, but the weekly signal appears more consistent than the previous reading.
In the following chart we observe the recovery in natural gas alongside the rebound in the Managed Money net position.
WTI: price decline and net balance still under pressure
WTI shows a contained reduction in the net balance but a marked decline in price. The net position of Managed Money fell from 82,872 to 81,282 contracts, a decrease of 1,590 contracts, equivalent to 0.08% of open interest. Both longs and shorts were reduced, with long liquidation amounting to 6,082 contracts.
The price fell 5.07%, confirming the deterioration of the market backdrop. The historical percentile of 29.5 places the balance in the lower portion of the sample, while the 52-week COT Index at 65.0 suggests that the weekly contraction is occurring within a less depressed recent range.
In the following chart we observe WTI with a declining price and a slightly deteriorating Managed Money net position.
7. Final remarks
The 30 June reading shows a risk recomposition rather than a single directional trend. The Nasdaq 100, gold, silver and natural gas are attracting renewed interest or short-covering favourable to the net balance. The S&P 500, copper and WTI, by contrast, signal a reduced willingness to increase directional exposure, with copper representing the clearest case in terms of normalised delta.
Agricultural commodities improve through short covering, but the sharp contraction in open interest undermines signal quality. EUR/USD remains in a low positioning zone relative to the past year: the exchange rate recovers while the Asset Manager net balance barely moves. The overall picture favours a selective reading, with greater attention to the composition of flows than to the mere sign of the net balance.
Operational Outlook
The COT suggests distinguishing three groups. The first comprises markets with the most consistent accumulation, led by natural gas and the Nasdaq 100. The second includes precious metals and agricultural commodities, where the balance is improving but price action, open interest or flow structure call for confirmation. The third covers copper, the S&P 500 and WTI, where the reduction in exposure signals a pause in risk appetite. Upcoming reports will need to clarify whether the recovery is being driven by fresh directional capital or by short-covering that remains tactical in nature.
Methodological Note. The reading draws on CFTC Futures Only reports: Asset Manager/Institutional for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Euro FX; Managed Money for gold, silver, copper, corn, soybeans, natural gas and WTI. Charts are sourced from Tradingster pages updated as at 30 June 2026. For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, Tradingster displays the net positions chart by category; for Euro FX and commodities, it also shows the price series integrated within the chart.