Market View
Weekly Intermarket Report
The Financial Spectator · DOMINA Market Intelligence
Integrated reading of the four macro asset classes — FX, commodities, bonds and equities — with a focus on weekly changes, breadth and the main cross-asset transmission channels.
Equities
UP
SPY +1.37% 1W · positive breadth
Bonds
DOWN
TLT −1.22% 1W · elevated yields
Commodities
FLAT
DBC +3.58% 1W · −9.14% 1M
US Dollar
UP
UUP +0.18% 1W · +1.90% 1M
Central thesis. The regime remains expansionary and predominantly risk-on, with equities as the primary leadership. The long-term structure is more robust than the tactical picture: the dollar and yields remain firm, bonds are weak, and commodities are showing a weekly recovery that remains fragmented.
Data source: DOMINA Market IntelligenceAuthor: Fabrizio RavettoPublication: The Financial Spectator
Executive Summary
The four macro asset classes in a single reading
Intermarket thesis: the regime remains expansionary and predominantly risk-on, but not uniform. Equities retain structural leadership; the dollar remains strong; commodities are rebounding without building a consistent trend; bonds represent the primary area of vulnerability, owing to still-elevated yields and negative breadth.
FX · US Dollar
UP
UUP +0.18% for the week; DXY in the Strong zone. Currency leadership confirmed.
Commodities
FLAT
DBC +3.58% on the week, but still −9.14% over one month. Selective recovery.
Bonds
DOWN
TLT −1.22% for the week. Weakness extends across Treasuries, TIPs and IG credit.
Equities
UP
SPY +1.37% for the week; positive breadth. Broad but selective leadership.
Macro rationale
A strong dollar and elevated yields are keeping financial conditions restrictive; however, credit is not signalling systemic stress, and equities continue to absorb the environment, supported by still-solid breadth.
Key divergence
The market is risk-on in aggregate, while the fixed income segment remains under clear pressure. This is the central friction to monitor in the weeks ahead.
01 · Regime
Market regime and multi-asset breadth
The overall picture remains risk-friendly, but the combination of a Canary System on caution, weakness in TIPs and strong pressure on yields prevents an unambiguously bullish reading.
Long-term structure
- WPI LT at 73%, with 12 out of 19 instruments in Q1.
- Strength is concentrated primarily in equities and agriculture.
- Bonds remain the structurally weakest component.
Tactical condition
- WPI ST at 53%, with 9 out of 19 instruments in Q1.
- Participation is narrowing, but without a signal of regime breakdown.
- Selectivity is increasing across sectors, precious metals and fixed income.
02 · FX
Macro Asset Class 01 · FX
Dollar: leadership confirmed
Weekly movement
- UUP +0,18% for the week.
- One-month and three-month performance both equal to +1,90%.
- Price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Intermarket implications
- Tighter global financial conditions.
- Potential headwind for commodities and emerging markets.
- Relative support for US domestic assets.
Dollar strength has not yet impaired risk appetite, but it remains the primary restrictive factor in the intermarket framework.
03 · Commodities
Macro Asset Class 02 · Commodities
Weekly rebound, structure still fragmented
+3,58%DBC · 1 week
−9,14%DBC · 1 month
−6,17%DBC · 3 months
WPI Breadth
- LT: DBC and DBA bullish; GLD and SLV weakening.
- ST: only DBA remains bullish.
- DBC, GLD and SLV are bearish in the short term.
Internal leadership
- Relative resilience in soft commodities and agriculture.
- Broad weakness in energy and several metals.
- Natural gas in weakening following the previous recovery.
The basket's recovery does not yet equate to a re-acceleration of the entire asset class. Agriculture remains the most solid component; the rest of the complex does not offer uniform confirmation.
04 · Bonds & Rates
Macro Asset Class 03 · Bond & Rates
The primary vulnerability in the outlook
The curve has returned to positive, but normalisation does not stem from a duration rally. Yields remain elevated and bond price weakness is widespread.
Bond prices
- TLT −1,22% on the week.
- TLT below the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Weakness confirmed over one- and three-month horizons as well.
Fixed income breadth
- TLT, IEF and TIP bearish both LT and ST.
- LQD moves from LT weakening to ST bearish.
- The Canary System reflects weakness in TIPs.
Credit versus duration. HYG/LQD and HYG/TLT indicators remain risk-on: the market is not signalling a credit crisis, but rather concentrated pressure on rates, duration and the cost of capital.
05 · Equity
Macro Asset Class 04 · Equity
Structural leadership, selective participation
| Leadership 1W | Performance | Weakness 1W | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSI 300 | +4,92% | DAX | −1,94% |
| KOSPI | +1,88% | FTSE 100 | −1,19% |
| Emerging Markets | +1,83% | Euro Stoxx 50 | −0,95% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +1,81% | Russell 2000 | −0,53% |
The weekly recovery in the KOSPI and CSI 300 does not erase the deterioration over longer horizons: the KOSPI remains at −13.82% on the month; the CSI 300 remains negative over one and three months and year-to-date.
S&P 500 breadth
The internal structure remains healthy: broad participation, a clear preponderance of advancing issues, and a positive balance between new highs and new lows.
Breadth and sector rotation
Leadership
- Financial Services: 78% / 90%
- Healthcare: 68% / 83%
- Utilities: 81% / 84%
- Industrials: 74% / 72%
Tactical deterioration
- Energy: 86% / 36%
- Communication Services: 50% / 38%
- Basic Materials: 68% / 53%
WPI Message
- 10 out of 11 sectors bullish in the LT.
- XLE and XLC bearish in the ST.
- XLB in weakening in the ST.
Geographic drill-down
06 · Cross-Asset Transmission
How the four asset classes are influencing one another
Causal chain
- Strong dollar → tighter financial conditions.
- Elevated yields → pressure on duration and multiples.
- Fragmented commodities → absence of a broad-based inflationary impulse.
- Stable credit → no current signal of systemic stress.
- Equity with positive breadth → the market continues to absorb elevated dollar and rate levels.
Key divergences
- Risk Appetite in Greed, but Canary in Caution.
- Equity strong, bonds weak.
- High-yield credit stable, investment grade deteriorating.
- Asia strong on the week, but monthly trends still uneven.
- Aggregate breadth positive, but cyclicals selective and small caps lagging.
07 · Scenario
Base scenario and risk map
Confirmations of the constructive regime
- WPI Short Term re-accelerating.
- S&P 500 breadth stable above 60–65%.
- Resilient high yield credit.
- Easing of yield pressure.
- Broadening of participation to small caps and cyclicals.
Deterioration signals
- WPI Short Term below 50.
- Deterioration in HYG/LQD or HYG/TLT.
- Persistent increase in new lows.
- Further relative weakness in small caps.
- Simultaneous acceleration of the dollar and yields.
- Loss of momentum in financials, industrials and healthcare.
Conclusion. The overall picture remains constructive but uneven. Selection across asset classes, regions and sectors is more important than the simple direction of the index: equity retains leadership, while bonds, the dollar and yields define the primary macro-financial constraint.
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