The COT report dated 7 July depicts a still-selective rotation. The net balance improves markedly on Nasdaq 100, corn, soybean and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. S&P 500, Euro FX, gold, silver, copper and WTI, by contrast, retreat in their core positioning. The headline takeaway is therefore an uneven rebuilding: risk returns where the move is supported by fresh longs or substantial short-covering, but has yet to extend across the entire cross-asset perimeter.
1. A Still-Selective Rotation
The most visible move is in Nasdaq 100: Asset Managers increase their net position by 11,667 contracts, equivalent to 3.85% of current open interest. The build combines fresh longs with short reduction — a more solid configuration than a simple short-covering exercise. In agricultural commodities the recovery is broader in absolute terms: corn improves by 51,997 contracts and soybean by 31,430 contracts.
The quality of the signal, however, is not identical. In corn, the improvement stems primarily from the closing of 57,841 short positions, while longs decline by 5,844 contracts and open interest retreats. In soybean, by contrast, the position improves via +13,276 new longs, 18,154 shorts closed and open interest rising 8.60%. In practical terms, soybean exhibits a more complete construction, whereas corn remains a recovery driven largely by short-covering.
The contrarian element comes from precious metals and energy. Gold and silver rise in price, yet the Managed Money net balance contracts; WTI recovers 1.35%, while the net balance falls by 17,241 contracts. In these cases price does not confirm positioning, and the COT calls for caution in treating the recovery in quotations as an already-consolidated directional reading.
| Market | Net / OI delta | Prevailing construction | Price and positioning | Historical percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −0,28% | Shorts rising faster than longs | Net balance slightly lower | 73,7 |
| Nasdaq 100 | +3,85% | New longs and short covering | Positioning improving | 62,2 |
| Euro/Dollar | −0,16% | Longs and shorts rising together | Neutrality | 21,8 |
| Gold | −1,06% | Shorts increasing | Divergence | 43,6 |
| Silver | −0,55% | New shorts and modest long trimming | Divergence | 30,1 |
| Copper | −0,37% | Long liquidation | Fragile neutrality | 81,4 |
| Corn | +3,04% | Short covering prevailing | Confirmation | 67,3 |
| Soybean | +3,22% | New longs and short covering | Confirmation | 75,0 |
| Natural Gas | +0,27% | Longs and shorts both rising | Neutrality | 42,3 |
| WTI | −0,90% | Longs declining and shorts rising | Divergence | 19,2 |
2. US Indices: S&P Sideways, Nasdaq Rebuilding
S&P 500, net balance slightly lower within a still-elevated positioning
The Asset Managers' net position in S&P 500 has declined from 976,189 to 970,592 contracts. The reduction of 5,597 units equates to −0.28% of current open interest and stems from a mixed dynamic: longs increase by 11,118 contracts, while shorts grow by 16,715 contracts.
The futures price remained virtually unchanged, posting a gain of 0.04%, while open interest edged up just 0.13%. The historical percentile at 73.7 keeps the balance in an elevated band, even though the COT Index 52 at 59.1 signals less extreme tension relative to recent highs. The picture does not describe broad liquidation, but rather increased hedging within a still-robust positioning.
In the chart below, we observe price and net positions by category for the S&P 500, with Asset Managers still broadly positive but marginally reduced in the latest report.
Nasdaq 100, the recovery combines new longs and short closing
On the Nasdaq 100, the net position of Asset Managers rose from 68,195 to 79,862 contracts. The increase of 11,667 units, equivalent to 3.85% of open interest, combines +8,686 new longs with 2,981 short covers. This represents the most decisive build of the week on a normalised basis.
Open interest increased by 2.20%, indicating that the recovery does not depend solely on a compression of bearish positions. The historical percentile rose to 62.2, and the COT Index 52 reached 67.3. Over four weeks, the net position remains negative by 4,575 contracts, but the weekly reading breaks the more defensive stance observed during the previous month.
In the chart below, we observe the consolidated net positions on the Nasdaq 100, where the Asset Managers' balance resumes its upward trend after the compression seen in preceding weeks.
3. Euro/Dollar: balance nearly unchanged, but still subdued over the past year
The net position of Asset Managers in Euro FX moved from 255,158 to 253,918 contracts. The change is negative by 1,240 contracts, equivalent to −0.16% of open interest. Both longs and shorts increased simultaneously, by 7,468 and 8,708 contracts respectively, signalling greater gross participation rather than a clear net directional shift.
EUR/USD retreated 0.08% over the week. The COT Index 52 remains at 0.0, while the historical percentile of 21.8 places the balance in the lower end of the 156-week sample. Over four weeks, the net position declined by 27,638 contracts: the euro recovery observed during certain recent phases has not yet translated into a convincing rebuilding of institutional positioning.
In the chart below, we observe the EUR/USD exchange rate alongside net positions by category, useful for distinguishing the apparent stability of the balance from the simultaneous growth in both longs and shorts.
4. Metals: prices recovering, positioning less convincing
Gold: price recovers but balance declines
In gold, the net position of Managed Money fell from 120,091 to 116,161 contracts. The decline of 3,930 units, equivalent to −1.06% of open interest, stems almost entirely from an increase in shorts: bearish positions grew by 4,294 contracts, while longs increased by only 364.
The price rose 3.04%, creating a divergence between quotes and positioning. The historical percentile of 43.6 keeps the balance in an intermediate range, and the COT Index 52 at 35.8 does not signal a bullish excess. The price rally has therefore not yet been accompanied by a consistent speculative accumulation.
In the chart below, we observe the divergence between the gold price and the Managed Money net position, with prices recovering while the net balance retreats.
Silver: price recovery without confirmation from the balance
The net position of Managed Money in silver declined from 13,782 to 13,201 contracts. The reduction of 581 units is equivalent to −0.55% of open interest and combines a modest trimming of longs, amounting to 55 contracts, with 526 new shorts.
Prices gained 2.44%, while open interest declined by 3.77%. The historical percentile of 30.1 and the COT Index 52 of 21.9 describe a balance that remains low relative to the recent oscillation range. Here too, the price improvement outpaces the improvement in positioning.
In the chart below, we observe silver recovering in price, while the net position has yet to confirm the move in quotations.
Copper: balance still elevated but easing
Copper shows a more contained reduction in net positioning, though still at historically elevated levels. The Managed Money net position declined from 59,703 to 58,784 contracts, a drop of 919 units, equivalent to −0.37% of open interest. The move was driven primarily by long liquidation, with long positions falling by 1,124 contracts.
The price retreated 0.34% and open interest declined 1.33%. The historical percentile remains elevated at 81.4, while the COT Index 52 holds at 70.5. The key takeaway is that copper retains a crowded positioning relative to the sample, but the week signals a reduced willingness to add directional risk.
In the chart below, we observe copper with a net balance still elevated but in a de-risking phase relative to prior weeks.
5. Agricultural commodities: corn driven by short covering, soybean more broad-based
Corn: the recovery stems from short closing
The Managed Money net position in corn moved from −66,996 to −14,999 contracts. The improvement of 51,997 units, equivalent to 3.04% of open interest, represents the largest absolute move of the week. The decisive component was the closing of 57,841 short positions, while longs declined by 5,844 contracts.
The price gained 7.21%, confirming the direction of the net balance. Open interest, however, retreated 1.18%, and the thirteen-week change remains negative at −225,975 contracts. The signal is therefore constructive in the near term, but still attributable to the covering of bearish positions rather than a full-scale entry of fresh directional capital.
In the chart below, we observe corn with a rising price and a sharp improvement in net positioning, albeit within a structure still characterised by short covering.
Soybean: fresh longs and short covering move in tandem
In soybeans, the Managed Money net position rose from 38,149 to 69,579 contracts. The increase of 31,430 units is equivalent to 3.22% of open interest and combines +13,276 new longs with 18,154 shorts closed.
The price rose 7.16% and open interest increased 8.60%. This combination makes the signal more comprehensive than in corn: not merely short covering, but also rising gross participation. The historical percentile reaches 75.0, while the COT Index 52 at 42.9 indicates that the net balance has not yet reached the upper range of the past year.
In the chart below, we observe soybeans with both price and net positioning recovering, supported by new longs and a reduction in short exposure.
6. Energy: natural gas showing moderate improvement, WTI diverging
Natural Gas: a less short balance, but a less clean signal
In natural gas, the Managed Money net position improved from −64,808 to −60,295 contracts. The balance remains negative, but the weekly change is positive at 4,513 contracts, equivalent to 0.27% of open interest.
The structure is less straightforward than the prior week: long positions increased by 17,029 contracts, but short positions also grew by 12,516 contracts. The price retreated 0.31%, while open interest rose 2.16%. A COT Index 52 of 55.2 and a four-week improvement of 62,322 contracts keep the overall picture less depressed, but the weekly signal reflects rotation rather than pure accumulation.
In the chart below, we observe natural gas with a less negative net position, accompanied by simultaneous growth in both longs and shorts.
WTI: price recovering but net balance deteriorating
WTI presents one of the sharpest divergences of the week. The Managed Money net position fell from 81,282 to 64,041 contracts, a reduction of 17,241 units, equivalent to −0.90% of open interest. Longs declined by 10,488 contracts while shorts increased by 6,753.
Price gained 1.35%, but the COT does not confirm the recovery in quotes. The historical percentile of 19.2 places the balance in the lower end of the sample, while the COT Index 52 at 74.0 signals a relative recovery from recent lows. The combination is fragile: price bounces, but Managed Money are reducing net exposure.
In the following chart we observe WTI with price recovering and the Managed Money net position deteriorating — a divergence to be monitored in upcoming readings.
7. Final Reading
The 7 July reading does not tell a straightforward story of renewed risk appetite. Nasdaq 100 and soybean show the most convincing build, as the improvement in net balance is accompanied by new longs and rising open interest. Corn records a broader recovery in absolute terms, but remains dominated by short covering.
The opposite front is formed by gold, silver and WTI, where price improves but net positioning retreats. Copper remains elevated in percentile terms but is trimming longs. EUR/USD remains in a low range relative to the past year, while natural gas improves only marginally and with longs and shorts rising simultaneously. The next reading will need to clarify whether the rebuilding extends beyond Nasdaq and agricultural commodities or whether it remains a tactical rotation across market segments.
Operational Reading
The COT suggests distinguishing four blocks. The first comprises Nasdaq 100 and soybean, where the build is most coherent. The second includes corn, where the move is positive but driven primarily by short covering. The third concerns gold, silver and WTI, which are diverging between price and positioning. The fourth comprises S&P 500, EUR/USD, copper and natural gas, where the signal is more sideways or fragile. The distinction between new longs, short covering and the increase in shorts remains the key point of the week.
Methodological Note. The reading uses CFTC Futures Only reports: Asset Manager/Institutional for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Euro FX; Managed Money for gold, silver, copper, corn, soybean, natural gas and WTI. Charts are sourced from Tradingster pages updated as of 7 July 2026. For Nasdaq 100, Tradingster displays the net positions chart in the document; for other markets the document includes the price and net positions chart. The COT Report is used as a contextual indicator of the aggregate positioning of operators in futures markets. It does not represent a standalone signal nor an operational recommendation.