Positioning remains selective

The COT report dated 14 July — the Commitments of Traders, the CFTC's weekly report on futures market positioning — presents a less straightforward picture than the previous edition. Across the nine markets covered, the net balance improves on four — gold, copper, corn and soybeans — and retreats on the remaining five, from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 through to silver, WTI and, most notably, natural gas. The rebalancing therefore remains selective: certain segments are reducing bearish excess, while US indices and energy fail to confirm a broad-based reconstruction of risk.

1. A Still Selective Risk Rebalancing

The thread running through the week is dispersion. Corn registers the strongest net increase, +26,360 contracts, supported by both fresh buying and the closing of short positions. Gold adds 4,618 net contracts with a more straightforward configuration, as longs increase while shorts are reduced. At the opposite end, natural gas sheds 45,414 net contracts, combining a reduction in longs with an increase in shorts.

Open interest — the total number of contracts outstanding in a series — helps to distinguish the quality of price movements. Copper shows the broadest increase in participation, +3.56%, yet the net improvement remains modest given the simultaneous rise in longs, shorts and spreads. Gold, by contrast, combines a 3.20% rise in open interest with positive net construction. Across the indices the tone is more defensive: both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 see their Asset Manager net balance decline — Asset Managers being the institutional operator category in the TFF report (Traders in Financial Futures).

One distinction remains critical: an improving net balance is not always equivalent to accumulation. When the net rises solely through the closing of short positions, the move speaks to short-covering; when it grows alongside open interest and fresh longs, the signal becomes more constructive. In this survey, only a portion of the universe displays orderly directional construction.

2. US Indices: Asset Manager Lightening

Across US indices the week delivers a defensive signal. Asset Managers trim their net balance on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, with a normalised delta close to -1.5%/-1.6% of open interest. The move signals a reduced willingness to increase directional exposure to equity indices following the prior recovery, while still falling well short of an abrupt reduction in positioning.

The operational distinction concerns the Nasdaq 100, where the four-week cumulative balance remains positive: the week's data points to marginal distribution, while the recent trajectory retains part of the prior construction. On the S&P 500, the combination of reduced longs and increased shorts renders the picture more clear-cut, with Asset Managers cutting net risk in the 14 July survey.

In the following chart we observe the S&P 500: the reduction in the Asset Manager net balance confirms a week of net risk reduction.

S&P 500 - Asset Manager/Institutional

TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.

In the following chart we observe the Nasdaq 100: the weekly reading retreats, while the recent cumulative figure still retains part of the previous build.

Nasdaq 100 - Asset Manager/Institutional

TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.

3. Metals: gold more orderly, copper more tactical

Gold offers the most orderly configuration in the complex. The Managed Money net balance — the speculative operators isolated in the Disaggregated report — increases by 4,618 contracts, supported by fresh longs and a reduction in shorts, while open interest advances 3.20%. Rising participation alongside an improving net balance brings the move closer to a directional build than to a simple short-covering episode.

Silver and copper call for greater caution. Silver's net delta deteriorates, but with a simultaneous reduction in gross risk: the signal is more indicative of a lightening of exposure than of fresh aggressive bearish pressure. Copper improves its net balance and shows the strongest open interest increase in the complex, +3.56%, with longs, shorts and spreads rising simultaneously; participation broadens, while directionality remains less defined than in gold.

In the following chart we observe gold: the improvement in the net balance is accompanied by rising open interest, offering the most orderly signal in the complex.

Gold - Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

In the following chart we observe silver: the decline in the net balance occurs within a reduction in gross risk, rather than reflecting a fresh aggressive increase in shorts.

Silver - Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

In the following chart we observe copper: open interest rises sharply, but the simultaneous growth in longs, shorts and spreads keeps the signal tactical.

Copper - Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

4. Agriculturals: short covering and an initial recovery in risk appetite

Agricultural commodities concentrate the most constructive activity of the week. Corn posts the largest net increase across the entire universe, +26,360 contracts, driven by fresh longs and short covering. The historical percentile of the net balance remains close to the median range, at 51.7, but the weekly shift indicates a positive rebalancing following a more compressed phase.

Soybeans improve with less intensity and in a manner more closely tied to short covering. Long positions remain nearly unchanged, while the closing of shorts underpins the net balance. The reading is marginally favourable, though of a different quality than corn: in soybeans, the recovery depends primarily on the fading of bearish pressure rather than on a fully developed long build.

In the following chart we observe corn: fresh longs and short covering support the strongest net increase in the survey.

Corn - Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

In the following chart we observe soybeans: the improvement is driven primarily by the closing of shorts, with long positions nearly unchanged.

Soybeans - Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

5. Energy: natural gas remains fragile, WTI in risk-reduction mode

Energy remains the weakest area in the survey. Natural gas sheds 45,414 net contracts, combining a reduction in longs with an increase in shorts. The normalised delta, at -2.73% of open interest, signals pronounced distribution and keeps the historical percentile in low territory, at 24.1.

WTI shows more contained pressure, though the overall picture remains far from constructive. The decline in the net position stems from a simultaneous reduction in both longs and shorts: Managed Money appears to be trimming gross risk rather than opening an aggressive new bearish position. For both series, the next confirmation will depend on open interest's ability to stabilise alongside an improvement in the net balance.

In the chart below we observe natural gas: the decline in the net balance and the increase in shorts confirm the more pronounced pressure within the group.

Natural Gas – Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

In the chart below we observe WTI: the weekly weakness stems primarily from the reduction in gross positions rather than from any dominant new bearish pressure.

WTI Crude Oil – Money Managers

TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.

6. Final reading: a selective repositioning

The week's snapshot is one of a multi-speed repair. Gold and corn lead the improvement with the cleanest structure — net balance rising alongside growing open interest — copper broadens participation without yet defining a clear direction, while US indices and energy shed net risk. Assets with orderly accumulation thus remain clearly separated from those merely covering short positions or undergoing distribution.

The extremes help calibrate the overall picture. Gold, with a historical net-balance percentile of 86.2, sits in the upper reaches of its own distribution: an already rich long positioning that leaves less room for fresh buying and heightens sensitivity to any profit-taking. At the opposite end, natural gas (24.1) and WTI (20.7) remain compressed at the low end — a condition that in the past has preceded both extended weakness and technical rebounds. US indices and soybeans gravitate around the median band, consistent with a positioning that is neither crowded nor extreme.

One caveat bears noting: COT data capture positioning as of Tuesday and are released with a few days' lag, meaning they describe what has already occurred more than what lies ahead. For the coming week, continuity is what matters most: a constructive confirmation requires improving net balances alongside stable or rising open interest, particularly in gold, corn and copper. Conversely, further cuts by Asset Managers in US indices or additional pressure on natural gas would keep the picture skewed towards dispersion, with individual-asset signals proving more informative than aggregate readings. The next data point arrives with the following week's COT release.

1. CFTC — Commitments of Traders, as of 14 July 2026 (TFF and Disaggregated reports).
2. TradingSuite/Domina — COT charts "price and net positions by category" for nine markets (latest report: 14 July 2026).
3. Bluewonder — COT Annual Dashboard 2026, processing of positioning data and historical percentiles.