The COT report dated 21 July — the Commitments of Traders, the CFTC's weekly report on futures positioning — shifts in tone compared with seven days earlier. Across the nine markets tracked, the net balance improves on six — gold, copper, corn, soybean, WTI and, to a lesser extent, natural gas — and retreats on three: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and silver. The strongest impulse comes from agricultural commodities and copper; US equity indices remain in reduction mode. Along a single clear axis, the week's dispersion is plain to read: the real economy segment of the complex is rebuilding risk, while the equity component continues to shed it.
1. The risk recovery shifts to commodities
The centre of gravity of positioning is moving towards the real economy segment of the complex. With +55,314 net contracts, soybean posts the largest increase across the entire universe, supported both by fresh buying and by the closing of short positions. Corn responds to the same dual impulse, adding +45,352 net contracts; copper gains +11,330 net contracts with the cleanest configuration in the group — longs rising sharply and shorts declining. On the opposite side, the S&P 500 sheds 12,116 net contracts, where the selling of longs coexists with the opening of new short risk.
The quality of the moves is further clarified by open interest, the total number of contracts outstanding in a series. In soybean, participation rises 4.0%, in copper 3.9%, in corn 2.1%: in all three cases the net balance improves alongside a market that is expanding — the hallmark of directional construction rather than mere short-covering. The picture is different for the indices, where Asset Managers — the institutional operator category isolated in the TFF report, the Traders in Financial Futures — reduce their net exposure on both indices, with open interest flat on the S&P 500 and marginally higher on the Nasdaq 100.
A methodological distinction is worth drawing: an improving net balance does not always equate to accumulation. If the net rises solely through the closing of shorts, the move signals short-covering; if it grows alongside fresh longs and rising open interest, the signal becomes more constructive. In this report, the most orderly part of the universe — copper, corn and soybean — displays precisely this combination, with the z-score of the weekly change at 2.1 for copper and 1.8 for soybean, magnitudes that stand outside recent norms.
| Market | Delta net / OI | Prevailing construction | Positioning reading | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0,62% | Long reduction and short increase | Heavy Asset Manager distribution, fourth consecutive week of decline | 26,7 |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0,43% | Reduction of both longs and shorts | Distribution, with the 4-week cumulative still positive | 43,3 |
| Gold | +1,06% | Fresh longs and modest short increase | Managed Money accumulation, percentile in elevated territory | 90,0 |
| Silver | -0,21% | Both longs and shorts increasing | Net slightly lower, participation rising | 66,7 |
| Copper | +4,20% | Fresh longs and short covering | Full-spectrum strengthening, the strongest in the universe | 90,0 |
| Corn | +2,60% | Fresh longs and short covering | Long repositioning, fourth consecutive positive week | 56,7 |
| Soybean | +5,29% | Fresh longs and short covering | Broad rebuilding, the largest in contract terms | 46,7 |
| Natural Gas | +0,18% | Both longs and shorts increasing | Still net short, marginal improvement in the balance | 30,0 |
| WTI | +0,11% | Both longs and shorts increasing | Gross risk increasing, net little changed | 26,7 |
2. US Indices: Asset Managers continue to reduce
On the equity side, the week confirms the defensive tone of the previous edition. The S&P 500 records its fourth consecutive decline in the net balance of Asset Managers: longs retreat by 1,374 contracts, shorts rise by 10,742, for a normalised delta of -0.62% of open interest. A four-week cumulative reading negative by 64,086 contracts and a historical percentile that has fallen to 26.7 place positioning in the lower end of the recent distribution. The internal reading is one of outright distribution, driven by the selling of longs and the opening of new short positions.
Less severe is the dynamic on the Nasdaq 100. Here longs and shorts decline together, with a net delta of -0.43% of open interest and participation edging slightly higher, +1.4%: the move is more suggestive of an overall exposure reduction than of fresh bearish pressure. The trajectory retains memory of the preceding phase, with a four-week cumulative reading still positive and a percentile at 43.3, near the median range. Between the two indices, the operational distinction lies in the nature of the adjustment: on the S&P 500, short risk is being added; on the Nasdaq 100, contracts are being unwound on both sides.
In the following chart we observe the S&P 500: the reduction in longs and the increase in shorts confirm the fourth consecutive week of distribution among Asset Managers.
S&P 500 - Asset Manager/Institutional
TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the following chart we observe the Nasdaq 100, with longs and shorts declining simultaneously and a recent cumulative reading still positive.
Nasdaq 100 - Asset Manager/Institutional
TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.
3. Metals: copper leads, gold crowded, silver stalled
Copper offers the most orderly configuration in the entire release. The net balance of Managed Money — the speculative operators isolated in the Disaggregated report — grows by 11,330 contracts, driven by 10,897 new longs and a reduction in shorts, while open interest advances 3.9%. Long construction, short covering and rising participation bring the move close to a full directional build-up; the historical percentile, having risen to 90.0, nonetheless signals an already rich positioning.
Accumulation in gold continues, with a net balance up 4,052 contracts. Here the reading is less straightforward than in copper: longs grow by 4,582 contracts, shorts increase by 530 and open interest remains essentially unchanged. The percentile at 90.0 confirms a crowded long positioning, which leaves less room for fresh buying and raises sensitivity to profit-taking. Silver remains the laggard of the complex: the net balance slips by just 219 contracts, with longs and shorts rising simultaneously — +650 and +869 respectively — and open interest expanding 1.3%. Participation is broadening, while the direction of the net balance remains in stall.
In the following chart we observe copper: long construction combines with short covering and a sharp rise in open interest.
Copper - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the following chart we observe gold, where the net balance continues to rise while the percentile in elevated territory signals an already crowded long positioning.
Gold - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the following chart we observe silver: participation increases on both sides, while the net balance remains virtually unchanged.
Silver - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
4. Agricultural commodities: the week's driving force
Agricultural commodities attract the strongest positioning impulse of the report. Soybeans post the largest net increase across the entire universe, at +55,314 contracts, built on a broad base: 34,233 new longs and the closing of 21,081 short positions, against a 4.0% rise in open interest. The historical percentile of the net balance remains in the median band, however, at 46.7 — a reading that describes a robust move still well short of crowding.
Corn accompanies the recovery, marking its fourth consecutive week of improvement: +45,352 net contracts, driven primarily by the closing of 33,924 short positions and 11,428 new longs. Open interest rises 2.1%, and the percentile moves to 56.7, just above the median. In both markets the quality of the move is high — net balance, longs and participation all rise together — and positioning retains room before entering extreme territory. The distinguishing factor is the weight of short-covering, more pronounced in corn, where the closing of short positions accounts for the bulk of the recovery.
In the following chart we observe soybeans, with new longs and short covering jointly supporting the largest net increase of the report.
Soybeans – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the following chart we observe corn: short covering drives the fourth consecutive week of net balance improvement.
Corn – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
5. Energy: WTI gross risk increases, natural gas still net short
The energy sector offers a partial stabilisation. WTI improves its net balance by a mere 2,005 contracts, but the internal reading is more nuanced: longs and shorts rise together — +6,308 and +4,303 respectively — while open interest retreats 0.6%. Managed Money is adding gross risk on both sides without establishing a clear net directional bias; the percentile remains compressed at the lower end, at 26.7.
Natural gas confirms a slow recovery from a still deeply net short position. The net balance improves by 2,953 contracts but remains negative at –102,756, with longs and shorts both rising and open interest growing 1.0%. A percentile of 30.0 and a ten-week cumulative figure that has turned positive by 17,309 contracts describe a gradual repair rather than a completed reversal. For both series, confirmation will depend on the ability of the net balance to improve alongside stable open interest.
In the following chart we observe WTI, with longs and shorts rising in tandem and a net balance that shows little movement.
WTI Crude Oil – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the following chart we observe natural gas: the net balance improves but remains deeply negative, in a recovery that is still only partial.
Natural Gas – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
6. Final reading: risk rebuilt in the real asset segment, equity indices lagging
This week's snapshot is that of a recovery shifting its centre of gravity. Seven days earlier, the repair had been selective and advancing in small steps; now it is concentrating in commodities and agricultural markets, with copper, corn and soybeans displaying the cleanest structure — net position gains, new longs and open interest rising simultaneously. Gold extends its accumulation phase, albeit with more mixed participation. On the other side of the ledger, US equity indices remain under pressure, with Asset Managers continuing to pare net risk and, on the S&P 500, adding to short positions.
The percentile extremes help calibrate the picture, measuring how crowded any given positioning already is. Gold and copper, both at 90.0, sit at the upper end of their respective distributions: a rich long positioning that narrows the scope for fresh buying and heightens sensitivity to profit-taking. At the opposite extreme, the S&P 500 (26.7), WTI (26.7) and natural gas (30.0) remain compressed at the lower end — a condition that has historically preceded both extended weakness and technical rebounds alike. In the middle, around the median band, corn and soybeans orbit consistently with a robust, not yet extreme, build.
Tail risks should be kept distinct. On the more buoyant commodities, the elevated weekly z-scores — 2.1 on copper, 1.8 on soybeans — signal moves that are wide relative to recent norms, and shifts of this magnitude tend to partially retrace in subsequent readings; on gold and copper, crowded positioning amplifies that sensitivity. On the indices, the risk runs in the opposite direction: an Asset Manager distribution that accelerates — particularly on the S&P 500 — would keep the equity component lagging the rest of the complex.
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In terms of what merits monitoring, the most informative signal remains continuity: a constructive confirmation requires improving net positions alongside stable or rising open interest, particularly in copper, corn, soybeans and gold. Conversely, further increases in Asset Manager short positions on the S&P 500, or a stalling of natural gas's recovery, would keep the backdrop skewed towards dispersion, with single-asset signals more informative than aggregate readings.
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders, survey dated 21 July 2026 (TFF and Disaggregated reports).
- TradingSuite/Domina — COT charts "price and net positions by category" for the nine markets (latest report: 21 July 2026).
- Bluewonder — COT Annual Dashboard 2026, positioning and historical percentile analysis.