The COT report dated 28 July — the Commitments of Traders, the CFTC's weekly report on futures positioning — reverses the hierarchy of seven days prior. Across the nine markets covered, the net balance improves on five — S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, WTI, corn and soybean — and retreats on four: gold, silver, copper and natural gas. The broadest thrust comes from corn, +70,063 net contracts, and WTI, +28,964; the metals, which had led the reconstruction the previous week, pull back from crowded levels. In the equity space the picture changes sign: after four consecutive declining readings, Asset Managers return the net balance to positive on both US indices.
1. The risk reconstruction shifts leadership
The centre of gravity of positioning rotates. Seven days earlier, risk was being rebuilt in metals and agriculturals, with copper, corn and soybean displaying the cleanest structure; now the thrust passes to energy and grains, while metals retreat. Corn posts the largest increase across the entire universe, +70,063 net contracts, followed by WTI with +28,964 and soybean with +29,974. On the opposite side, gold (−5,036), copper (−6,507), silver (−2,100) and natural gas (−3,070) retreat — the four series in decline for the week.
The quality of the moves calls for a distinction. An improving net balance does not always equate to accumulation: if the net rises solely through the closing of short positions it signals a short cover, short covering; if it grows alongside new longs and rising open interest — the total number of contracts outstanding on a series — the signal becomes more constructive. In this report, the two largest net increases stem largely from short-closing activity: in corn, short positions are reduced by 61,365 contracts, and in WTI by 22,474, with open interest essentially unchanged in both cases. True long-side accumulation, with growing participation, is instead observed in the Nasdaq 100, where open interest rises 2.6%.
A useful tool for gauging the magnitude of moves is the z-score of the weekly change, which measures how far a variation departs from its recent norm. On WTI it reaches 2.0 and on corn 1.1: pronounced magnitudes that have historically tended to precede a partial retracement in subsequent reports. Copper, moving in the opposite direction, registers −1.1, consistent with the pause following the stronger build of seven days prior.
| Market | Delta net / OI | Prevailing construction | Positioning read | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0,77% | Longs and shorts increasing | Net balance recovering after four weeks, mixed reading | 45,2 |
| Nasdaq 100 | +1,30% | New longs and short covering | Complete strengthening, open interest rising | 54,8 |
| Gold | −1,31% | Longs and shorts declining | Lightening from a crowded positioning | 77,4 |
| Silver | −1,97% | Long reduction and short increase | Strong distribution, fourth consecutive week of decline | 25,8 |
| Copper | −2,37% | Long reduction and short increase | Complete deterioration following the peak | 67,7 |
| Corn | +4,03% | New longs and aggressive short covering | Accumulation, fifth consecutive positive week | 61,3 |
| Soybean | +2,94% | New longs and short covering | Strengthening with open interest declining | 54,8 |
| Natural Gas | −0,18% | Longs and shorts increasing | Still net short, balance slightly lower | 22,6 |
| WTI | +1,56% | New longs and aggressive short covering | Accumulation, percentile rising sharply | 77,4 |
2. US Indices: the distribution comes to a halt
In the equity space, the week breaks the defensive inertia of the previous edition. The S&P 500 returns to positive after four consecutive declining readings: the net balance of Asset Managers — the category of institutional operators isolated in the TFF report, the Traders in Financial Futures — rises by 15,388 contracts, with longs increasing by 15,487 and shorts nearly unchanged at +99. Open interest grows by 2.5% and the historical percentile climbs back to 45.2, after 25.8 the previous week. The reading remains mixed: the recovery is there, yet the four-week cumulative balance remains negative at 33,204 contracts, a residual imprint of the phase just concluded.
The Nasdaq 100 is more orderly, offering the cleanest construction in the equity complex. The net position gains 4,146 contracts, supported by 2,240 new longs and the closure of 1,906 short positions, while open interest advances by 2.6%: net balance, longs and participation all rise together — the hallmark of a full directional strengthening. The percentile moves to 54.8 and the four-week cumulative balance turns positive. Between the two indices, the difference lies in the quality of the move: on the S&P 500, gross risk is growing on both sides; on the Nasdaq 100, the direction is clear-cut.
In the chart below we observe the S&P 500: the return of longs after four weeks of decline interrupts the Asset Manager distribution phase, with participation increasing on both sides.
S&P 500 - Asset Manager/Institutional
TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we observe the Nasdaq 100, with new longs, short covering and rising open interest: the cleanest directional construction in the equity complex.
Nasdaq 100 - Asset Manager/Institutional
TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.
3. Metals: profit-taking from crowded levels
The metals group reverses course. Gold reduces the Managed Money net position — the speculative operators isolated in the Disaggregated report — by 5,036 contracts, with both longs and shorts declining, −6,394 and −1,358 respectively, and open interest flat. This is a reduction of exposure from a crowded long positioning: the percentile falls from 90.3 to 77.4, while the ten-week cumulative balance remains positive at 26,255 contracts. The pullback starts from an elevated level and retains the memory of prior accumulation.
More pronounced is the reversal in copper, which the previous week had posted the strongest construction in the universe. The net balance sheds 6,507 contracts, with longs declining by 5,247 and shorts increasing by 1,260: a complete deterioration, with the z-score at −1.1 and the percentile dropping from 90.3 to 67.7. At the weakest end of the complex sits silver, recording its fourth consecutive week of decline. The balance retreats by 2,100 contracts, with longs nearly flat and shorts rising by 1,835; the percentile collapses from 67.7 to 25.8, with the internal reading signalling heavy distribution.
In the chart below we observe gold: the simultaneous reduction in both longs and shorts signals a reduction of exposure from a still-elevated percentile.
Gold - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we observe copper: the strongest construction of the previous week is followed by a complete deterioration, with longs declining and shorts rising.
Copper - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we observe silver, in its fourth consecutive week of decline: rising shorts and a sharply falling percentile confirm the distribution.
Silver - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
4. Agriculturals: corn leads, recovery driven by short covering
Agricultural commodities remain among the week's key drivers, albeit with a different composition compared to seven days prior. Corn posts the largest net increase across the entire universe, +70,063 contracts, marking its fifth consecutive week of improvement. The recovery stems primarily from the closure of 61,365 short positions, against 8,698 new longs and a marginally declining open interest of −0.3%: this reads more as broad short covering than a directional accumulation supported by fresh participation. The percentile moves up to 61.3, just above the median.
Soybeans follow a similar trajectory, also registering a fifth consecutive positive week, with a net change of +29,974 contracts. Here, new longs carry more weight — +19,474, alongside 10,500 shorts closed — but open interest retreats by 2.4%: the net balance improves even as the market thins. The percentile rises to 54.8. In both grains, the direction is positive and not yet at an extreme; what distinguishes them is the relative weight of short covering, which dominates in corn.
In the chart below, we examine corn: the heavy closure of short positions drives the fifth consecutive week of net balance improvement.
Corn – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below, we examine soybeans: the net balance improves on new longs and short covering, while declining open interest signals a thinning market.
Soybeans – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
5. Energy: WTI accelerates, natural gas remains short
Energy delivers the week's most striking reversal. WTI improves its net balance by 28,964 contracts — the second-largest increase in the universe — driven almost entirely by the closure of 22,474 short positions against 6,490 new longs. Open interest remains essentially flat, down a marginal 0.3%, while the percentile jumps from 25.8 to 77.4. The z-score of 2.0 marks the widest move of the reporting period: a broad shift relative to recent norms, now in its second consecutive week of accumulation, with a short-covering component that will be key to determining its sustainability.
The picture for natural gas is altogether different, confirming a failed recovery. The net balance deteriorates by 3,070 contracts and remains deeply negative at −105,826, with both longs and shorts rising — +4,487 and +7,557, respectively — and open interest slipping 0.4%. The percentile slides to 22.6, reflecting an entrenched distribution reading. The short position remains the largest in the sector, pending a net balance improvement accompanied by stable participation.
In the chart below, we examine WTI: the heavy closure of short positions drives the percentile sharply higher, with the week's highest z-score.
WTI Crude Oil – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below, we examine natural gas: the net balance deteriorates marginally and remains deeply negative, with a short position that continues to be the most pronounced in the sector.
Natural Gas – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
6. Final reading: a rotation within risk appetite, still awaiting confirmation
The week's snapshot is one of rotation. The risk appetite that seven days ago was rebuilding in metals and agricultural commodities has shifted toward energy and grains, while gold, copper and silver pull back following their recent rally. In the equity space, Asset Managers break a four-week distribution streak and return the net balance to positive territory, with the Nasdaq 100 displaying the most orderly build — net balance, longs and open interest all rising simultaneously.
Percentile extremes help calibrate the overall picture, measuring how crowded a given positioning already is. Gold (77.4) and WTI (77.4) now occupy the upper end of their respective distributions, but for opposing reasons: in gold, the elevated reading accompanies an ongoing unwinding, while in WTI it comes at the peak of a move that has only just begun and is driven by short-covering. At the lower extreme remain natural gas (22.6), silver (25.8) and the S&P 500, the latter having rebounded to 45.2 from recent lows. Corn and soybean hover around the median band, consistent with a robust but not yet extreme build.
Downside risks should be kept distinct. In the week's strongest-performing markets — WTI and corn — elevated z-scores of 2.0 and 1.1 respectively signal moves that are wide relative to recent norms, and shifts of this magnitude frequently see a partial reversal in subsequent readings; the dominant weight of short-covering on both markets makes the recovery more technical than directional until open interest resumes growing. In metals, the risk runs in the opposite direction: an acceleration in the unwinding of gold and copper from still-elevated percentiles would add further pressure to the complex. In equity indices, a return to selling by Asset Managers in the S&P 500 would call into question the reversal just observed.
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In terms of what warrants close monitoring, the most informative signal remains continuity: for the WTI and corn recovery to transition from short-covering to accumulation, net positions must improve alongside rising — not declining — open interest. On the metals front, the key question is whether the unwinding in gold and copper remains orderly or accelerates from elevated percentile readings; in indices, whether Asset Managers confirm their return to buying or resume trimming risk in the S&P 500. As always, signals at the individual asset level remain more informative than aggregate readings.
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders, survey dated 28 July 2026 (TFF and Disaggregated reports).
- TradingSuite/Domina — COT charts «price and net positions by category» for the nine markets (latest report: 28 July 2026).
- Bluewonder — COT Annual Dashboard 2026, processing of positioning data and historical percentiles.