The COT report of August 4 — the # Commitments of TradersThe weekly CFTC report on futures positioning — the Commitments of Traders — maps the centre of gravity of risk across metals markets. Of the nine markets covered, the net balance improves in four — gold, silver, copper and corn — and retreats in five: the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, WTI, natural gas and soybeans. The clearest signal comes from copper, where the net balance has reached the top of its annual distribution range with open interest rising; gold and silver are moving in the same direction. In equities, the picture is the mirror image of seven days ago: Asset Managers are once again unwinding risk exposure, and the Nasdaq 100 has slipped into heavy distribution.
1.The reconstruction of risk returns to metals
The centre of gravity of positioning rotates once again, this time in favour of metals. The largest net increase across the entire universe comes from corn, at +18,045 contracts, followed by gold with +10,971 and copper with +10,750; silver adds +2,792. On the opposite side, the sharpest decline belongs to soybeans, at −27,955 contracts, ahead of natural gas (−21,107) and the Nasdaq 100 (−12,488). Rounding out the week's losses are the S&P 500 (−7,210) and WTI (−5,985).
The quality of these movements calls for a distinction. A improving net balance does not always reflect accumulation: if it rises solely due to the closing of short positions, it describes a short-covering,Short covering; if it grows alongside new longs and rising open interest — the total number of open contracts on a series — the signal becomes more constructive. Copper falls into the second category: longs rise by 10,185 contracts, shorts remain nearly unchanged (−565), and open interest advances 5.4%, the hallmark of a fully directional build. Corn, by contrast, owes its top ranking to the closure of 22,782 short positions, with longs slightly lower (−4,737) and open interest broadly flat (+1.5%): more of a broad short-covering than an accumulation underpinned by fresh participation.
Helping to gauge the breadth of price moves is the z-score of the weekly change, which measures how far a given deviation strays from recent norms. Copper registers 1.88 and gold 1.37: pronounced magnitudes, consistent with the ongoing constructive build-up in metals. Moving in the opposite direction, the Nasdaq 100 posts −1.76, the most extended downside reading in the survey, while soybeans come in at −0.95.
| Market | Net Delta / Open Interest | Predominant construction | ## Positioning Readout | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −0,34% | Longs and Shorts on the Rise | Distribution, participation growing on both sides | 34,4 |
| Nasdaq 100 | −3,73% | Long reduction and short increase | Strong distribution, complete deterioration | 18,8 |
| Gold | +2,95% | New longs and short covering | Strong accumulation, percentile at year-high levels | 93,8 |
| Silver | +2,49% | New longs and shorts almost at a standstill | Accumulation, strong percentile recovery | 78,1 |
| Copper | +3,71% | New longs and rising open interest | Strong accumulation, peak of the distribution | 100,0 |
| Corn | +1,02% | Strong short covering, longs slightly lower | Accumulation, sixth consecutive positive week | 62,5 |
| Soybean | −2,82% | Long reduction and short increase | Distribution, after five weeks of gains | 46,9 |
| Natural Gas | −1,24% | Long reduction and short increase | Strong distribution, minimum of the perimeter | 6,2 |
| WTI | −0,32% | Long reduction and short increase | Pullback from highs, neutral reading | 68,8 |
2.# US Indices: Asset Managers Return to Parading Risk
On the equity side, the week reverses the recovery seen in the previous edition. The S&P 500 pulls back by 7,210 net contracts after returning to positive territory seven days earlier. The internal picture is mixed: the Asset Manager balance — the category of institutional operators isolated in the TFF report, the# Traders in Financial Futures — falls as shorts grow faster than longs, +10,624 versus +3,414, with open interest rising 6.7%, the largest increase in the report. Participation rises on both sides, but the direction turns to distribution: the historical percentile slips from 46.9 to 34.4, and the four-week cumulative remains negative at 33,614 contracts.
The Nasdaq 100 picture is sharper. Here the net balance sheds 12,488 contracts, with longs declining by 7,163 and shorts increasing by 5,325: a complete deterioration, with the z-score at −1.76 and the percentile collapsing from 56.2 to 18.8, the lower end of the annual distribution. What distinguishes the two indices is the structure of the move: on the S&P 500, gross risk grows on both sides; on the Nasdaq 100, the reduction is directional and brings positioning back near recent lows.
In the chart below we observe the S&P 500: participation grows on both sides, but shorts rise faster than longs and the Asset Manager net balance returns to distribution.
S&P 500 - Asset Manager/Institutional
TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we observe the Nasdaq 100: declining longs and rising shorts push the percentile into the lower end of the distribution, marking the most extended bearish reading of the week.
Nasdaq 100 - Asset Manager/Institutional
TradingSuite COT, TFF Futures Only, Net Positions.
3. Metals: risk rebuilds at the top
The metals group leads the report, and copper offers the most solid construction. The Managed Money net balance — the speculative operators isolated in the Disaggregated report — rises by 10,750 contracts, supported by 10,185 new longs and nearly unchanged shorts, while open interest grows 5.4%: balance, longs and participation all rise together. The percentile, which locates current positioning relative to roughly one year of available history, reaches 100.0 — the top of the distribution — up from 65.6 seven days earlier; the z-score of 1.88 is the most pronounced reading of the week.
Gold sits on the same side, with a slightly different signature. The net balance improves by 10,971 contracts, driven by 4,716 new longs and the covering of 6,255 short positions, while open interest retreats 3.4%: positioning strengthens on a thinning market. The percentile climbs back to 93.8 and the ten-week cumulative rises to 33,320 contracts. Silver completes the sector's recovery: after four weeks of distribution it returns to accumulation, with +2,792 net contracts, 2,526 new longs, open interest up 4.9%, and the percentile jumping from 25.0 to 78.1.
In the chart below we observe gold: new longs and short covering reinforce the net balance, with the percentile climbing back to year-to-date highs even as open interest declines.
Gold - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we observe copper: new longs and rising open interest push the net balance to the top of the annual distribution, with the highest z-score of the week.
Copper - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we observe silver: after four weeks of decline the net balance returns to accumulation, with the percentile rebounding sharply and open interest rising.
Silver - Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
4. Agricultural commodities: corn holds on short covering, soybean reverses
Among grains, the two series move in opposite directions. Corn posts the largest net increase in the universe, +18,045 contracts, marking the sixth consecutive improving reading; the recovery stems primarily from the closing of 22,782 short positions, against 4,737 fewer longs and an open interest that is nearly flat (+1.5%). This is a broad short-covering move, with the percentile settling at 62.5, just above the median, and a contained z-score of 0.24: the signal remains positive, though the momentum rests on covering rather than fresh long construction.
Soybeans reverse after five consecutive weeks of gains, posting the largest net decline in the survey at −27,955 contracts. Long positions fall by 20,138 and shorts rise by 7,817, with open interest down 2.9%: a comprehensive deterioration that pulls the percentile from 56.2 to 46.9, just below the median. The internal reading shifts from neutral to distribution, closing the book on the accumulation phase of recent weeks.
In the chart below we examine corn: the massive closure of short positions underpins the sixth consecutive week of improvement, with open interest nearly unchanged.
Corn – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
In the chart below we examine soybeans: a sharp decline in longs combined with rising shorts reverses the trend after five weeks of gains, with the balance in distribution.
Soybeans – Money Managers
TradingSuite COT, Disaggregated Futures Only, Net Positions.
5. Energy: WTI pulls back, natural gas hits its low
In the energy complex, WTI gives back part of its surge from the prior week. Following the +28,964 of the previous reading, the Managed Money net balance loses 5,985 contracts, with longs down 4,441 and shorts up 1,544, while open interest edges slightly higher (+1.5%). The percentile falls from 78.1 to 68.8 and the reading reverts to neutral, with a z-score of −0.63: a contained retracement, consistent with the elevated magnitude recorded the week before. The reference contract remains the NYMEX WTI-Physical, the largest by open interest.
The picture in natural gas is quite different, as positioning continues to deteriorate. The balance worsens by 21,107 contracts and remains deeply negative at −126,933, the largest short position in the universe; longs fall by 9,890, shorts rise by 11,217 and open interest grows by 2.0%. The percentile slips to 6.2, the lowest among the nine markets, confirming a strong distribution reading for the second consecutive survey. Such a compressed positioning leaves the market exposed to rapid short-covering on any supply or demand catalyst.
In the chart below we examine WTI: following the prior week's surge, the balance retraces, with declining longs and rising shorts bringing the percentile back to a neutral reading.
WTI Crude Oil – Money Managers (Tradingster)
Tradingster – Prices & Net Positions, category M_Money (Managed Money).
In the chart below we examine natural gas: the balance deteriorates further and remains the deepest short position in the sector, with the percentile at the lowest level among the nine markets.
Natural Gas – Money Managers (Tradingster)
Tradingster – Prices & Net Positions, category M_Money (Managed Money).
6. Final reading: risk re-concentrates in metals
The week's snapshot is one of a rotation returning to metals. The risk that seven days earlier had shifted towards energy and grains reconcentrates on gold, silver and copper, with copper posting the most orderly construction — net balance, longs and open interest rising simultaneously. In the equity space, Asset Managers resume risk shedding: the S&P 500 returns to distribution, the Nasdaq 100 slides into heavy distribution. Energy and soybeans give back part of their recent build.
Percentile extremes help calibrate the picture, measuring how crowded a positioning already is. Sitting near the top of their respective distributions are copper (100.0), gold (93.8) and silver (78.1), the three metals leading the rebuild; WTI (68.8) and corn (62.5) remain just above the median. At the lower extreme sit natural gas (6.2) and the Nasdaq 100 (18.8), with the S&P 500 (34.4) and soybeans (46.9) below the median line. The dispersion across the nine markets is wide, a sign that positioning is moving by sector rather than in lockstep.
Tail risks warrant separate consideration. In the more prominent metals — copper at the 100th percentile and gold at 93.8 — crowding is the primary factor to watch: positioning this extended has frequently preceded periods of unwinding in the past, and its sustainability depends on open interest holding. In corn, the recovery remains more technical than directional as long as the impetus comes from short-covering rather than fresh participation. In the indices, a sustained return to selling by Asset Managers would keep the equity complex in distribution. In natural gas, conversely, a net short this deep leaves room for rapid short-covering on any supply-side catalyst.
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In terms of what warrants monitoring, the most informative indicator remains continuity. For the metals rebuild to consolidate, net balances need to continue improving alongside open interest that does not retreat — particularly in gold, where the current strengthening coexists with a thinning market. In corn, what matters is whether short-covering gives way to fresh long-side construction; in the indices, whether Asset Managers confirm their selling or return to the S&P 500. As always, single-asset signals remain more informative than aggregate readings.
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders, survey dated 4 August 2026 (TFF and Disaggregated reports).
- TradingSuite/Domina — COT charts "price and net positions by category" for seven markets: indices, metals and agricultural commodities (latest report: 4 August 2026).
- Tradingster — COT "Prices & Net Positions" charts for the two broad NYMEX contracts not available in the Domina view: WTI-Physical (067651) and Natural Gas (023651), latest report: 4 August 2026.
- Bluewonder — COT Annual Dashboard 2026, positioning and historical percentile analysis.