Broader risk-on sentiment, but duration comes back under pressure

DOMINA · PER THE FINANCIAL SPECTATOR

WEEKLY INTERMARKET REPORT
W33 · 10–14 August 2026 · DATA CUT 14/08/2026

DOMINA MARKET INTELLIGENCE · CROSS-ASSET

The equity structure improves and tactical participation broadens, while commodities and real assets accelerate. The signal is not, however, a full risk-on: Treasuries and duration remain weak, the Canary is still on Caution and long-term breadth retreats slightly. The picture is constructive, with a tilt consistent with tactical reflation, but still conditioned by the cost of capital.

Author · Fabrizio Ravetto | Data cut 14/08/2026 | Week 33

Executive Summary

W33 consolidates risk-on without resolving its principal anomaly. Risk Appetite rises from 77 to 79, the WPI — Wyckoff Position Index improves on both Long Term (72% → 77%) and Short Term (65% → 69%), and breadth above the 50DMA climbs to 70.7%. Daily internals remain constructive: A/D at 1.04 and 49 new highs versus 3 new lows. Confirmation is nonetheless incomplete: the share above the 200DMA falls to 70.9%, the Canary remains on Caution and the fixed income sleeve deteriorates. TLT loses 0.87% on the week and stands at -4.69% over three months; CME Treasury futures in the longer-duration segment remain in the weak portion of the rotation. Simultaneously, DBC accelerates (+3.77% 1W; +5.41% 1M) but remains -0.99% over three months: this is a tactical acceleration in real assets, not yet a multi-month regime change. Credit and volatility remain benign (VIX 14.2; CREDIT OK), so the observed risk is primarily rates/duration in nature, not systemic stress.

Market Regime · Risk Appetite 79 · Business Cycle in Expansion · Canary in Cautela · data cut 14/08/2026 — Market Regime · Risk Appetite 79 · Business Cycle in Expansion · Canary on Caution · data cut 14/08/2026

1. Macro Asset Snapshot

EquityConstructive

Equity, bonds, commodities and the dollar compared

SPY +0.40% 1W; QQQ +1.11%; IWM +1.17%. WPI LT/ST improving and tactical breadth above 70%.

BondWeak

TLT -0.87% 1W, -2.58% 1M, -4.69% 3M. Bond sleeve WPI in Q3 LT/ST; CME Treasury futures still weak.

CommoditiesAccelerating

DBC +3.77% 1W and +5.41% 1M, but -0.99% 3M: tactical strength with internal dispersion.

USD / FXSideways

UUP +0.14% 1W, -0.81% 1M, +2.82% 3M. The dollar shows no unidirectional acceleration.

Murphy’s 4 Pillars · stocks, bonds, commodities e US dollar — Murphy's 4 Pillars · 60-day rolling · SPY / TLT / DBC / UUP · data cut 14/08/2026

2. Week-over-Week

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change	Trajectory	Interpretation
Risk Appetite Index	77 · Extreme Greed	79 · Extreme Greed	+2 points	Improving	Risk appetite remains elevated, with no change in band.
Business Cycle Clock	Expansion	Expansion	Unchanged	Stable	The platform's cyclical backdrop remains expansionary.
Canary System	Caution	Caution	Unchanged	Mixed	Credit remains OK, but TIP NEG prevents the regime from qualifying as full risk-on.
WPI Long Term	72%	77%	+5 pp	Improving	Strengthening of the long-term structure.
WPI Short Term	65%	69%	+4 pp	Improving	Tactical momentum improves, but remains below the Long Term reading.
S&P 500 > 200DMA	72,1%	70,9%	-1.2 pp	Deteriorating	Slight erosion of structural participation.
S&P 500 > 50DMA	69,1%	70,7%	+1.6 pp	Improving	Tactical participation improving.
VIX	14,9	14,2	-0,7	Improving	Lower implied volatility; no systemic stress signal from the VIX.
TLT · 1W	+0,62%	-0,87%	-1.49 pp	Deteriorating	The tactical bounce from W32 is reabsorbed.
TLT · 1M	-2,05%	-2,58%	-0.53 pp	Deteriorating	Duration weakness remains persistent.
TLT · 3M	-3,33%	-4,69%	-1.36 pp	Deteriorating	The long-duration constraint intensifies.
WPI Bonds	Q3 LT / ST	Q3 LT / ST	Unchanged	Stable weak	TLT, IEF, TIP and LQD remain in the weak quadrant across both horizons.

3. Global Indices

Global Indices Performance · 1D / 1W / 1M / 3M / YTD · data cut 14/08/2026

Observed data. The week is positive across almost all major blocs: IWM +1.17%, QQQ +1.11%, SPY +0.40%; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.59%, DAX +0.32%, while the FTSE 100 retreats 0.78%. In Asia the contrast is sharp: Nikkei +1.35% and EWY/Korea +8.22%, against FXI/China -3.54%; EEM closes +1.48%. Interpretation. Leadership broadens beyond US mega-caps and remains favourable towards Japan/Korea, but this is not a geographically uniform risk-on. Counter-reading. Korea's weekly +8.22% should be read as an acceleration/reversal: the 3-month figure remains -5.50%, so it does not yet constitute sufficient evidence of persistent medium-term leadership.

4. Country Monitor

Country Monitor globale — Global Rotation / Country Monitor · relative trajectories · data cut 14/08/2026

Country Monitor · Americas · data cut 14/08/2026

Country Monitor · Europe · data cut 14/08/2026

Country Monitor · Asia-Pacific · data cut 14/08/2026

Country Monitor · Emerging / MENA · data cut 14/08/2026

The global map confirms strong dispersion. Developed Europe presents a cluster predominantly in the strong half; Asia-Pacific shows Japan, Taiwan and Korea in constructive territory, while China remains the principal consistent weak spot, in line with FXI. In the Americas, the US/Canada core is more solid than several Latin American markets. The overall reading is therefore one of selective and rotational risk appetite, not of global synchronisation.

5. USA Sector Rotation

USA Sector Rotation · ETF settoriali disponibili — sector monitor available · data cut 14/08/2026 · RSP and SOX not included in this edition

Sector rotation remains predominantly constructive: Energy and Technology are positioned in the strong segment, Communication Services is improving, while Utilities remains the weakest component. Sector breadth reinforces the reading: Energy 86%/91%, Financial Services 87%/81% and Healthcare 83%/87% above the 200DMA/50DMA. The most notable divergences are Real Estate (74% above the 200DMA but 45% above the 50DMA) and Utilities (52%/29%). Inference: leadership is not concentrated exclusively in growth; cyclical and value segments are also participating, but rate-sensitive sectors are not uniformly strong.

6. US Yield Curve

US Yield Curve · current vs 3 months ago — US Yield Curve · 2Y–10Y spread +0.48% · 3M–10Y spread +0.76% · individual node values not reconstructed

Indicator	Current value	WoW	Reading
2Y–10Y spread	+0,48%	NOT AVAILABLE	Positive curve; the panel displays the spread but not the individual numerical nodes.
3M–10Y spread	+0,76%	NOT AVAILABLE	Positive curve; no reconstruction of yields from chart data points.

7. Breadth and WPI

S&P 500 breadth sopra 200DMA e 50DMA — S&P 500 internals · 70.9% above 200DMA · 70.7% above 50DMA · A/D 1.04 · 49 new highs / 3 new lows

Advance/Decline e nuovi massimi/minimi a 52 settimane — S&P 500 internals · 70.9% above 200DMA · 70.7% above 50DMA · A/D 1.04 · 49 new highs / 3 new lows

Sector Breadth Heatmap — Sector Breadth · percentages above 200DMA and 50DMA · data cut 14/08/2026

WPI Long Term 77% — WPI Long Term · Wyckoff Position Index · 77% · Strong · 13/19 in Q1

WPI Short Term 69% — WPI Short Term · Wyckoff Position Index · 69% · Moderate · 11/19 in Q1

Storico WPI + SPY 2Y — WPI History + SPY · 2Y horizon · LT structure above ST at data cut

WPI Wyckoff Position Index: reading and counter-reading

Observed data. The WPI — Wyckoff Position Index rises to 77% Long Term (Strong; 13/19 instruments in Q1) and 69% Short Term (Moderate; 11/19 in Q1), up from 72% and 65% in W32. The structure therefore remains stronger than tactical pressure, with both readings improving.

Counter-reading. Breadth above the 200DMA nevertheless declines from 72.1% to 70.9%, while breadth above the 50DMA rises from 69.1% to 70.7%. This is not an automatic contradiction: the WPI and percentage-above-moving-average metrics measure different aspects. The message is that the tactical improvement has not yet uniformly broadened structural participation.

WPI Quadrants · Long Term · bond sleeve in Q3; prevalenza di settori in Q1 — WPI Quadrants · Long Term · bond sleeve in Q3; predominance of sectors in Q1

WPI Quadrants · Short Term · bond sleeve in Q3; XLU in Q3, XLC in Q2

8. FX

FX Rotation · chart trails · data cut 14/08/2026

UUP is essentially flat on the week (+0.14%) and lower on the month (-0.81%), while remaining +2.82% over three months. The FX map shows no uniform dollar acceleration; several currencies are in strong/improving territory, while the Swiss franc appears weak. Reading: the dollar is not imposing additional cross-asset tightening this week. The 200DMA label in the UUP panel is not used due to the numerical inconsistency identified.

9. Commodities

Commodity Aggregate rotation — Commodity Aggregate · Commodity Aggregate · internal rotation within the broad complex · data cut 14/08/2026

Energy Index rotation — Energy Index · Energy Index · strong internal dispersion; refined products more solid, natural gas weak

Precious Metals rotation — Precious Metals · Precious Metals · gold strong; silver/platinum improving; palladium weak

Industrial Metals rotation — Industrial Metals · Industrial Metals · copper/steel-related names more solid; nickel and some ferrous metals weaker

Grains rotation — Grains · Grains · prevalence of instruments in the strong half / improving

Soft Commodities rotation — Soft Commodities · Soft Commodities · cocoa/sugar/cotton more solid; coffee weakening; orange juice and lumber weak

Observed data: DBC gains 3.77% on the week and 5.41% over one month, but remains -0.99% over three months. Interpretation: the broad complex is accelerating in the short term, with a configuration consistent with tactical reflation. Counter-reading: it is not yet appropriate to speak of a uniform commodity bull regime: DBC's quarterly figure is still slightly negative and the maps show marked dispersion across energy, metals and softs. The signal becomes macroeconomically more significant only if the strength extends and persists.

10. Bonds and Central Banks

Bond Rotation · CME Treasury futures · ZB/TN/ZN/ZF weak; ZT improving · data cut 14/08/2026

Regime sub-indicators · credit and volatility context — VIX 14.2 · HYG/LQD 0.7511 · HYG/TLT 0.9716 · panel ranked RISK-ON

The bond bloc remains the most significant divergence relative to equity risk-on. TLT turns negative on the week (-0.87%) and deteriorates over one month (-2.58%) and three months (-4.69%); in the WPI, TLT/IEF/TIP/LQD all remain in Q3 on both LT and ST. The Bond Rotation on CME futures confirms weakness in ZB, TN, ZN and ZF, with ZT relatively improving. Interpretation: pressure is concentrated on duration; without WoW values for individual nodes we do not label the move as a specific steepening/flattening. Context: credit and volatility remain benign, so no systemic stress is emerging. No new central bank element is included in the information set of this edition; no unverified external narrative is added.

11. Transmission Channels

DriverCommodities in tactical acceleration + weak Treasury futures

TransmissionStronger real assets may support inflation expectations / term premium, while bond weakness keeps the cost of duration elevated.

ImpactEquity remains supported by participation, but the more rate-sensitive and high-duration segments remain exposed to multiple compression.

Confirmation / RiskConfirmation: DBC maintains strength and bonds remain weak with stable breadth. Downside risk: commodities retreat or credit/volatility deteriorates, altering the nature of the signal.

12. Risks and Catalysts

Risk / Catalyst	Transmission Channel	Signal to Monitor
Pressure on the long end / duration	Higher yields → higher cost of capital and compression of the most duration-sensitive multiples.	TLT; CME Treasury futures ZB/TN/ZN/ZF; curve structure.
Tactical acceleration in commodities	Stronger real assets → possible upward pressure on inflation expectations and yields if the move persists.	DBC, Energy Index, Precious and Industrial Metals. Verify whether the 3M reading turns positive.
Structural/tactical breadth divergence	50DMA improves while 200DMA retreats → participated rally in the short term but not uniformly broader over the long term.	% >50DMA, % >200DMA, WPI LT/ST, A/D and new highs/lows.
Asia dispersion	Strength in Korea/Japan versus weakness in China → unsynchronised regional leadership.	EWY, EWJ, FXI and Country Monitor.
Break in the credit/volatility buffer	A simultaneous deterioration in credit and VIX would transform a duration problem into a more systemic risk.	HYG/LQD, HYG/TLT, VIX, Canary.

13. Focus for the Week Ahead

Five checkpoints define the quality of the regime: (1) whether breadth above the 200DMA resumes rising or continues to diverge from the 50DMA; (2) whether WPI ST continues to move towards LT or loses momentum again; (3) whether TLT and CME Treasury futures stabilise duration or extend weakness; (4) whether DBC's acceleration becomes persistent also on the 3M horizon; (5) if credit, VIX and the Canary remain benign. As long as tactical breadth, credit and volatility hold, the overall picture remains constructive. A simultaneous deterioration in duration, breadth and credit would instead be the signal that the rates problem is contaminating the risk regime.

14. Sources

DOMINA Trading Suite — Market Regime, Risk Appetite, Business Cycle Clock, Canary System and regime sub-indicators — data cut 14/08/2026.
DOMINA Trading Suite — Murphy's 4 Pillars and Global Indices Performance — 1D/1W/1M/3M/YTD performance where shown — data cut 14/08/2026.
DOMINA Trading Suite — US Yield Curve — current curve vs. 3 months; 2Y–10Y and 3M–10Y spreads as displayed on the platform — data cut 14/08/2026.
DOMINA Trading Suite — Market Breadth, Advance/Decline, 52W Highs/Lows, Sector Breadth, WPI Multi-Asset LT/ST and WPI history + SPY — data cut 14/08/2026.
DOMINA Trading Suite — Country, USA Sector, FX, Commodity and Bond Rotation — chart trails provided by the user, aligned to 14/08/2026. Bond Rotation based on CME Treasury futures.
DOMINA Weekly Intermarket W32 — DOMINA_Weekly_Intermarket_Week32_2026-08-07_v2_FINAL.html — approved reference for Week-over-Week comparison.

Stated limitations. For this edition, USA Sector Rotation uses only the available sector ETFs: RSP and SOX are not included. In the UUP panel, a label on the 200DMA appears numerically inconsistent with the price and moving average displayed (28.1 vs. 27.8); this label has not been used in the analysis. Individual Treasury curve nodes are not estimated from the chart.